XP International, a company within the XP Inc. group, today announced a strategic partnership with Kalshi, a regulated prediction markets platform in the United States, to bring this new asset class to Brazilian investors. This initiative positions XP, through its Clear brand, as a pioneer in introducing this new asset class in Brazil, expanding access to financial instruments already established in developed markets.
Through this partnership, Clear brand clients who have an international investment account with XP International will gain access to prediction markets in XP's offshore environment, incorporating an innovative, complementary instrument aligned with international best regulatory practices into their global portfolio.
Prediction markets are a new category of derivative financial instruments that allow investors to position themselves on the outcomes of objective economic events and indicators. Through real-time pricing, these contracts reflect collective market expectations, transforming probabilities into clear price signals.
“XP’s mission has always been to expand access to new ways of investing. Prediction markets inaugurate a new asset category in the Brazilian market, offering investors another tool for scenario analysis, positioning, and portfolio protection. We believe this market has high potential to expand and complement the current market,” says Lucas Rabechini, Director of Financial Products at XP Inc.
Innovation with a solid regulatory foundation
Kalshi is authorized to operate in the United States as an event contracts exchange, under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory body for the American derivatives market. Prediction markets follow the same regulatory framework applied to other financial assets traded in the US, such as stocks, bonds, and traditional derivatives, with clear rules for pricing, settlement, and governance.
This is Kalshi's first strategic partnership with a financial group outside the United States, reinforcing XP's role as a key player in introducing innovative financial solutions, always aligned with international regulatory standards.
“As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited to have XP as Kalshi’s first partner brokerage outside of the United States. XP is one of the largest financial institutions in Brazil; expanding access to prediction markets to Brazil is an important step in offering more people around the world access to fair, secure, and regulated markets,” says Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder and COO of Kalshi.
Pioneering spirit that expands the market.
Since its founding, XP has played a central role in transforming the Brazilian financial market, leading innovation initiatives that have broadened access to products, technologies, and investment models previously restricted to a select few.
With the partnership between XP International and Kalshi, the company reinforces this trajectory by introducing a new asset category in Brazil, which complements the stocks, ETFs, bonds, and derivatives already available in XP's international environment, strengthening the construction of more diversified, informed, and efficient global portfolios.
New asset class traded directly between participants.
The partnership between XP International and Kalshi expands investors' access to a new instrument for analyzing scenarios and trends, traded directly between participants without the need for a "house" (or intermediary). Available to Clear brand clients with international accounts, the solution complements the product portfolio of XP's offshore platform, offering an integrated digital experience.
Initially, the focus is on financial and economic events, due to their potential to increase efficiency in price formation and the quality of market information. Access is granted diligently, aligned with client profiles and regulatory rules, reinforcing XP's commitment to financial education, governance, and offering legitimate instruments to help investors make better decisions.
“We are bringing this tool to help our clients invest better, with more alternatives for exposure to relevant economic events. Just as we did in the past by democratizing access to the stock market, we are now taking another step by introducing a market model already used in advanced economies, always with responsibility, education and governance,” adds Lucas Rabechini.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are organized markets in which participants trade contracts linked to the outcomes of objective and verifiable events, such as economic indicators, inflation data, monetary policy decisions, and other macroeconomic events.
The prices of these contracts reflect, in real time, the aggregate probability that the market assigns to a given scenario. In practice, they function as a "thermometer" of participants' expectations, transforming the so-called "wisdom of the crowds" into objective price signals that can be used by investors, companies, and other market agents.
This type of instrument complements other assets available in the international market, such as stocks, bonds, ETFs and financial derivatives, expanding the allocation possibilities within a global portfolio.[LF2.1][LC2.2]
Legal Notice
This material is prepared and made available by Clear, a brand of XP Investimentos CCTVM SA (“XP CCTVM”), solely for the purpose of publicizing the possibility of accessing the brokerage services offered by XP Investments US, LLC (“XP International”). XP International is a brokerage firm registered in the U.S. and a member of FINRA and NFA, subject to U.S. regulatory obligations. XP CCTVM in Brazil, through its brands “XP” and “Clear”, only provides access to XP International's brokerage services to investors in Brazil. Nothing herein should be considered investment advice, tax, legal, accounting or other advice.