Vale ended the fourth quarter of 2025 with a loss of US$3.8 billion, widening the loss recorded in the same period a year earlier, of US$694 million. For the year, net profit fell 62% to US$2.3 billion.

In its financial report, Vale attributed these figures to three factors. The first was a US$449 million increase in provisions related to updates in the lawsuit against Samarco in the United Kingdom.

The second component was a $3.5 billion write-down on Vale Base Metals' nickel assets in Canada, due to a downward revision of the commodity's long-term price assumptions based on market estimates.

Vale also highlighted a US$2.8 billion reduction resulting from the write-down of deferred taxes from subsidiaries. And that, excluding all these effects, it would have recorded a pro forma net profit of US$1.5 billion between October and December, and US$7.7 billion for the year.

The company's shares opened trading on the B3 stock exchange with a drop of more than 2% this Friday, February 13th. They were down 2.16% around 2:40 PM. However, according to Marcelo Bacci , CFO of Vale, this performance is not related to these and other figures in the financial report.

“We are in the commodities market, where there is a very strong correlation between the stock price and the product price,” Bacci stated in a conversation with journalists earlier today. “And today, iron ore is falling, in the range of US$99. So, it’s necessary to put this into perspective.”

The executive continued: “It’s important to look at a longer period, such as the last 12 months, at the level of recovery that our share price has had. And that reflects the more favorable market outlook and also what we have been doing from an operational point of view,” he said.

Vale's shares have appreciated by more than 59% in the last 12 months, giving the mining company a market value of R$ 372.6 billion.

In the most recent chapter behind this trajectory, Vale once again reported good operational figures, reinforcing the equation of increased production volume and realized prices coupled with reduced costs.

In production, for example, iron ore reached a volume of 336 million tons in the year, a growth of 2.6%. In copper and nickel, the increases were 9.8% and 10.8%, respectively.

“We managed to meet all the guidance we gave to the market regarding production and costs,” said Bacci. “And we achieved cost reductions in all segments.”

Following this trend, Vale reported adjusted EBITDA of US$4.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up 21% compared to the same period a year earlier, and above consensus projections. For the year, the indicator grew 4%, to US$15.4 billion.

Recurring free cash flow, in turn, advanced 107% between October and December, to US$1.6 billion, and 26% in 2025, to US$4.7 billion. Meanwhile, the expanded net debt of US$15.5 billion represented a 5% reduction over 2024 and a 6% reduction compared to the third quarter of last year.

“We have evolved on all fronts and delivered on all our promises,” the CFO noted. “And we are starting 2026 in a very favorable moment for the company.”

Solid results and sprint

In its report, BTG Pactual highlighted that expectations for the financial results were quite high and that Vale delivered the results everyone was expecting, with a solid set of indicators, including EBITDA, free cash flow generation, and a reduction in its debt.

Regarding the accounting write-down of nickel assets in Canada, the bank noted that the move was not surprising, given that the commodity had been declining for so many years, with the market undervaluing its price. It added:

"Vale continues to deliver results, quarter after quarter, and regain investor confidence, which, combined with the inflow of foreign capital into the Ibovespa and the rise in metal prices, has fueled its 'sprint' of approximately 60% in the last six months," wrote BTG.

XP, in turn, highlighted that the results reinforce Vale's "solid operational momentum," especially in its base metals division, where the company presented better results in both copper and nickel, in addition to meeting its iron ore cost projections.

"That said, although the assessment points to a negative capital asymmetry relative to commodities, we see the momentum remaining supported by continuous flows of foreign capital, an attractive relative valuation compared to peers, and expectations of solid results in the future," noted XP, with a neutral recommendation and a target price of R$ 71 for the stock.