The concern expressed by businessman Eduardo Peres, CEO of Multiplan , regarding the impact of the reduced 6x1 work schedule on the shopping center sector, is no longer just a perception. The real expectation is that this change will, in practice, be a bigger "meteor" than the Covid-19 pandemic itself.
A study conducted by the Brazilian Association of Shopping Centers (Abrasce) and revealed exclusively by NeoFeed shows that, in a scenario of reducing the work week from 44 to 40 hours, the sector will lose approximately 130,000 jobs in the first year alone. This represents a 12.2% reduction in job openings.
Today, Brazil has 658 shopping malls in 253 cities. They house 125,000 retailers, generating 1.1 million direct jobs, in addition to 3.3 million indirect jobs. The sector's revenue in 2025 reached R$ 200.9 billion.
“During the pandemic, a meteor fell on the shopping mall sector, such was the damage it caused. And that meteor could return, because our sector is likely to be the most affected by this change,” says Glauco Humai, president of Abrasce, in an interview with NeoFeed .
Based on the 2025 scenario, the shopping mall sector is expected to lose approximately R$ 15 billion in revenue in the first year of implementing the reduced working hours, representing a 7.3% drop.
The issue is that, unlike the first year of the pandemic, in 2020, when the sector experienced a 33% drop but recovered the following year, in this case the losses are expected to last at least five years, according to Abrasce.
In terms of labor, the reduction in jobs will remain high over the years. In the third year after the implementation of the new work schedule, according to the study, the sector will lose 5% of jobs. And, in the fifth year, there will be 2.3% fewer jobs.
According to Humai, the biggest impact will be on small shopkeepers, with up to four employees, who account for 60% of the number of stores in the country's shopping malls. In addition to the large number of layoffs, the change is expected to increase the rate of informality in the labor market.
Brazil currently has 16,000 kiosks spread throughout shopping malls, which, according to the executive, are likely to be the first to be affected. "Many of them may disappear," he says.
“Small businesses are the biggest occupiers and they can’t absorb this increase in costs. Their profit margins are already small because they compete directly with e-commerce. They’ll either operate at a loss or just barely make ends meet. It’s a complex and bad equation for everyone,” says Humai.
In practice, the change will also lead to an increase in the rate of store closures. The current vacancy rate, of around 5%, is expected to rise to as much as 8%, also within the first year.
According to the president of Abrasce, there is a lack of understanding in Brasília that the moment is not right for this type of discussion and, especially, for immediate implementation.
According to Humai's assessment, at a minimum the government should begin the dialogue with a proposal for a phased reopening, starting with the largest chains and preserving the smaller stores.
“This discussion doesn’t make sense in the country right now. Some sectors can’t absorb this cost, and the government needs to think about ways to compensate for it and reduce taxes,” he says. “This discussion isn’t that simple. We’re not talking about a factory from the 1960s that you can automate and replace functions with.”
According to the president of Abrasce, the situation here is different from what happens at the end of the year, when retailers hire temporary employees to handle the increased flow of customers.
"It would be a valid argument if sales for the other 11 months were the same as the Christmas period, if we could double the revenue for those other months as well, perhaps it would be possible to absorb it. But that's not the reality," he states.
Now, the association's president intends to intensify dialogue with the federal government to detail how much the sector will be harmed by the measures, should they come immediately, if the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) is approved by May, as planned.
"It's impossible to understand a discussion like this, especially when we're nearing the start of the election period. It will be chaos for the economy, and even more so for shopping malls."
