The release of Orizon 's fourth-quarter and 2025 year-end results served both for the market to assess the company's individual situation and to analyze the combined figures with those of Vital Engenharia, following the M&A announced in December of last year.
If the market had doubts about the outcome of the merger between the utility companies, Bank of America (BofA), XP Investimentos and UBS BB wrote positive reports on Thursday, March 26, for the new company in the waste management market.
The adjusted EBITDA reported of R$ 134 million in the fourth quarter, although in line with projections, was the component used to consolidate a pro forma view.
By 2025, the combined companies would have achieved an EBITDA of approximately R$1 billion, elevating Orizon to a new level of relevance and operational scale.
One of the most noteworthy points was the conservative debt profile presented by Vital, which ended the year with a net debt of R$ 26.4 million on an adjusted-for-property basis, representing a near-zero leverage of 0.1 times (x).
In consolidated terms, the net debt to EBITDA ratio of the combined platform stood at 1.2x, a level that allows the company to continue its consolidation journey without putting pressure on its capital structure.
In the words of Gustavo Faria and André Silveira, analysts at Bank of America, this “financial structure significantly reinforces the scale of the combined platform, especially in a scenario where the merger process should be fully completed by the third quarter of 2026”.
The strength of the balance sheet also extends to investment capacity. Orizon's Capex reached R$ 155 million in the last quarter of 2025, mainly directed towards the development of biogas and biomethane infrastructure, such as the Jaboatão plant, which marks a transition phase towards the exploration of new revenue streams.
Giuliano Ajeje, from UBS BB, states that the “positive view on the case is strengthened by Vital's solid deliveries and consistent execution, describing the end-use segment as a resilient and strategic cash generator”.
Even the net profit of R$ 23 million in the quarter, which suffered the non-recurring impact of R$ 15 million in costs related to structuring debt prepayments, did not shake analysts' confidence in the future profitability of the operation.
The investment thesis gains strength in the XP report. Raul Cavendish and Bruno Vidal state that Orizon is "one of those unique investment opportunities that arise once a decade, highlighting the combination of leadership in a fragmented sector with a management team capable of executing highly equity-based capital allocations."
According to XP, the company is in the initial stages of a profound transformation in the waste management sector, with the potential to capture exponential growth through the monetization of biomethane and carbon credits, areas that have already begun to show recurring revenue in the 2025 balance sheet.
The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of EBITDA of 19% between 2026 and 2031, positioning the ORVR3 stock with a target price of R$ 97.50 and a real internal rate of return of 14%.
Context of the merger
The acquisition of Vital Engenharia for R$ 3 billion was the move that allowed Orizon to double its capacity and geographically diversify its operations, transforming itself into a "waste champion".
Back then, the question was whether integrating an asset of similar size would be done smoothly; today, analysts confirm that the execution has been flawless.
BofA analysts reiterate their buy recommendation with a target price of R$ 90, seeing the company as the major beneficiary of the formalization of the waste market in Brazil. They highlight the company's strong pricing power, which raised the average gate fee (value charged for the use of a service point) to R$ 84.8 per ton in the quarter, exceeding inflation for the period.
UBS BB follows the same line, with a target price of R$ 92, anchored in valuation multiples that do not yet reflect the full potential for value generation from the merger synergies.
The consensus among the three banks is that Orizon has ceased to be a promise of growth and has become a safe haven of profitability and scale. For analysts, the "New Orizon" that emerged from the merger with Vital is the benchmark by which the entire sanitation and waste recovery sector will be measured in the coming years.
On the B3 stock exchange, ORVR3 shares have accumulated a 53.8% increase over 12 months, but this year the stock has fallen 5.2%. The company's market capitalization is R$ 6.3 billion.
