With the impact of the Federal Police's "Hidden Carbon" and "Lobato Well" operations , investigating tax fraud and organized crime activity in the fuel market, now over, the outlook for the Ipiranga network is one of at least 2.5% annual sales volume growth. This assessment comes from BTG Pactual, which has initiated coverage of Ultrapar, the holding company that controls Ipiranga.

According to analysts, the trend is that, starting from this new phase in 2026, the fuel company's margins will register a growth of 17.8%. "At Ipiranga, we expect the EBITDA margin to reach an average of R$ 165 per cubic meter (m³) in 2026 versus R$ 140/m³ in 2025 and R$ 144/m³ in 2024, supported by volume growth," says the report.

"Our view is supported by a reduction in irregular activities in the Brazilian fuel market, which we believe can result in a healthier competitive environment," states the document, signed by analysts Rodrigo Almeida and Gustavo Cunha.

In December, Ipiranga's president, Leonardo Linden , told NeoFeed that the company could open 700 gas stations per year in Brazil, which would represent double the current pace, if it weren't for the presence of crime in the sector.

"While we invest in security and infrastructure, we have to compete with those who don't care at all and evade taxes. We competed in that environment, but that's not fair," the executive said at the time.

According to BTG, there are growth opportunities for Ultrapar, which also controls Ultragaz, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias do Brasil, through possible future acquisitions this year. Analysts project dividend payments of R$ 1.2 billion this year, which, in their view, leaves the company with "a comfortable balance sheet."

"With management targeting recurring leverage of twice the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, we estimate that Ultrapar has R$3.1 billion in room to pursue new growth opportunities or increase distributions to shareholders," the bank states.

In this regard, analysts acknowledge that many of the opportunities that may arise this year are related to the strong performance of the company's fuel station unit.

“We particularly like Ultrapar’s disciplined approach to allocating surplus cash flows from Ipiranga, its ‘cash cow’ fuel distribution business, to organic and/or inorganic growth,” he explains.

In the first nine months of 2025, Ipiranga recorded net revenue of R$ 93.5 billion, compared to Ultrapar's total of R$ 104.5 billion during the same period. The group's fuel company grew by 5%, already under the effect of the Federal Police operations aimed at combating the illegal market at gas stations.

The perspective of BTG's experts is that, in 2026, Ultrapar will continue to pursue profitable growth, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) above 20% in its businesses.

If the company chooses not to pursue inorganic growth and instead prefers to use the resources to distribute additional cash, analysts estimate a dividend yield of around 18% in 2026.

Between January and September 2025, the holding company that controls Ipiranga recorded a net profit of R$ 2.3 billion, a 39% increase over the same period of the previous year. Investments totaled R$ 1.7 billion, 19% more than in the same period of 2024, which included the opening of new units. The company has approximately six thousand gas stations in Brazil.

With a buy recommendation for the shares, BTG indicates a target price of R$ 31 for the stock in the next 12 months, compared to a current trading price of R$ 22.50.

Ultrapar's shares on the B3 stock exchange have accumulated a 41.5% increase in value over the past 12 months. On Friday, January 16th, the company's shares were trading up 1.12% around 12:50 PM. Ultrapar is valued at R$ 25.1 billion.