The new minimum capital requirement imposed by the Central Bank of Brazil should reshape the cryptocurrency market in the country and transform 2026 into a year of consolidation – albeit a silent one.

On one side, large players are waiting for the smaller companies to make a move. These companies will have to survive under the new rule that seeks to create companies with more robust structures and a definitive alignment with the traditional financial system.

“We expected the rule to fall within a range of R$1 million to R$5 million, but the regulation determined values between R$10.8 million and R$37 million. This was a very large and unforeseen increase,” Bernardo Srur, president of the Brazilian Association of Crypto Economy (ABcripto), told NeoFeed .

Today, according to ABcripto, around 80% of crypto companies in Brazil are small or medium-sized. In other words, only 20% would be prepared to immediately meet the minimum capital requirement.

The regulation was published in November 2025 and establishes that companies must begin adapting in February 2026, with a deadline of November. According to Srur, the timeline is tight, which could stimulate a wave of mergers and acquisitions or lead companies to exit the sector.

Behind the scenes, however, the picture is clearer: the big players aren't in a hurry to make acquisitions. Industry executives believe that, for exchanges that are already capitalized and have complete infrastructure, such as technology, custody, and compliance, the main asset of the smaller players is their customer base.

In most cases, it's cheaper to compete for these users in the market than to pay for acquisitions. "I don't see a rush for M&As right now. The big players prefer to wait," said a CEO interviewed by NeoFeed on condition of anonymity.

The practical effect should be consolidation through exit, meaning that smaller companies, lacking the scale to justify the regulatory cost, tend to cease operations.

At the same time, regulation emerges as a seal of quality. For Ricardo Dantas, CEO of Foxbit , it organizes the market, increases consumer protection, and allows traditional financial institutions to operate crypto in a structured way.

According to the company's analysis, 2025 will mark the institutional consolidation of the sector, with ETFs, funds, and banks treating crypto as part of their financial infrastructure. In 2026, the next step is definitive integration with the financial system.

This integration is primarily driven by stablecoins, payments, and the expansion of the B2B market, which is expected to gain traction as companies begin using crypto as infrastructure and not just as a risky asset.

Some Brazilian players are already positioning themselves for this movement. Ripio , which operates in several Latin American countries and the United States, recently launched a stablecoin pegged to the Brazilian real, betting on the growth of local settlement, exchange, and corporate treasury solutions.

CEO Sebastián Serrano says that Brazil accounts for about 30% of the company's global volume and, therefore, he does not intend to leave the country even with stricter regulations. Operational adjustments will be necessary, however.

“For companies with scale and a long-term vision, regulation is not an impediment. It changes the way they operate, but not the rationale for remaining in the country,” says Serrano.

Ripio decided to consolidate its Brazilian operations into a single legal entity, concentrating licenses and reducing administrative costs. This move is expected to be repeated by other companies with fragmented structures, as a way to gain efficiency and economically justify their continued presence in the country.

In Serrano's view, 2026 also marks a turning point for corporate adoption, driven by regulatory clarity.

"The next growth cycle will not come from speculative retail, but from the use of crypto in payments, foreign exchange, and treasury," he says.

The interpretation is similar to that of other major exchanges, which are ceasing to present themselves as "crypto-only" companies.

Broader portfolio

The ambition now is to become complete financial platforms, offering credit, currency exchange, payments, and traditional investments, with crypto assets integrated into a broader portfolio, a path that Mercado Bitcoin and Foxbit have already been following.

According to Isaías Sznifer, partner at Seneca Evercore , this movement is structural and not merely strategic. The new regulation accelerates a change aimed at protecting and strengthening the relationship with the client.

"What we've been hearing most often are conversations about how a crypto company becomes a broader investment platform," says Sznifer.

According to him, the logic is to reduce dependence on a purely transactional relationship. “This crypto client is also a bank client, they do other financial activities. The perception is: if I can offer everything, crypto becomes a part of the offer, and not the only part,” he states.

This new cycle is occurring amidst a less euphoric global scenario. Signs of increased caution among large crypto treasuries and defensive capital movements indicate that 2026 may bring another crypto winter.

A projection by Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Bitcoin, currently trading at $86,800, could fall to $50,000. In a more extreme scenario, it could fall to $10,000.

Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin treasury, paused new purchases of the cryptocurrency in the last weeks of December and opted to strengthen its cash reserves. The company increased its dollar reserves to US$2.19 billion, while keeping its Bitcoin holdings unchanged.

In Brazil, recent episodes involving crypto treasury companies, such as the OrangeBTC case, have come to the market's attention as warnings about the risks of models highly exposed to price cycles.

Since the reverse IPO, OrangeBTC's shares have lost significant value, prompting the company to repurchase some of the shares in an attempt to curb the devaluation.

Although they did not directly motivate the new regulation, these episodes have been cited in market discussions as warning signs. Among investors and institutional clients, the interpretation is that models with limited capital and weak governance are more vulnerable to correction cycles and periods of tighter liquidity.

In this context, the minimum capital requirement should function as a selection mechanism. By raising the entry bar, it tends to reduce the number of players, but also to increase the predictability of the sector, creating a more favorable environment for banks, fintechs, and large companies to enter the use of crypto in payments, currency exchange, tokenization, and financial automation.