The combination of increased cash flow and the prospect of expanding interest payments on equity, with positive effects on the tax base, has significantly improved Citi's outlook on B3.
Analysts at the American bank raised their recommendation for the shares of the Brazilian stock exchange operator from neutral to buy and increased the target price from R$19 to R$23, given the effects these factors will have on the company's results and its thesis - the stock opened trading on Friday, April 10, at R$19.16.
"The upward revision is supported by significant upward revisions to earnings projections of 17% for 2026 and 13% for 2027," says an excerpt from the report signed by analysts Brian Flores, Gustavo Schroden, and Arnon Shirazi.
In the case of JCP (Interest on Equity), analysts cited the decision of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), taken at the end of last year. The ministers understood that it is possible to deduct JCP from the tax base of Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL), when calculated in a fiscal year prior to the shareholders' meeting decision authorizing its payment.
In practice, this measure paves the way for distributing interest on equity at higher levels than those previously practiced by the company, in addition to resulting in a significant "tax shield," reducing the effective tax rate.
“Historically, B3 has distributed JCP (interest on equity) below the maximum limit, which allows a payout of up to 50% of profit before taxes,” says an excerpt from the report. “We project that the total JCP to be distributed in 2026 and 2027 will be R$ 6.3 billion and R$ 6.7 billion, respectively, resulting in an effective tax rate of 20% and 24%, compared to the 37% rate for companies.”
The Superior Court of Justice's decision came at a time when the stock market is seeing an increase in the flow of resources, with foreign investors reducing their exposure to the United States and showing interest in allocating to emerging markets.
Citi analysts say that the average daily trading volume (ADTV) for the first quarter was 60% higher than the average recorded in 2025, indicating a positive trend for the year as a whole.
This situation led analysts to revise their ADTV projection upwards by 3%, projecting net income of R$ 6.6 billion in 2026 and R$ 6.8 billion in 2027, 19% and 13% above the average of projections collected by Bloomberg, respectively.
"We project that revenue from marketplaces will grow 25% year-over-year in the first quarter and 19% year-over-year, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 71% in 2026," says an excerpt from the report.
“We expect the company to deliver robust results in the first quarter, with recurring net income of R$1.4 billion, up 26% year-on-year, and ADTV of R$39.8 billion,” he added.
Citi now projects that B3 shares will trade at a P/E ratio of 15 times in 2026 and 14.5 times in 2027, with a dividend yield of 6.4%.
Around noon, B3 shares were up 2.14%, at R$ 19.57. Year-to-date, the shares have accumulated a 45.4% increase, bringing the market value to R$ 99.8 billion.
