Economic bills with a chance of approval in Congress (and those that have been postponed)

Brasilia - The National Congress resumes activities on Monday, February 2nd, with a tight and shorter schedule imposed by nine long weekends, elections, the World Cup, and ongoing political turbulence, which tends to relegate more controversial economic issues to the background, such as administrative reform, the financial autonomy of the Central Bank , and a law for the area of critical minerals.

Nevertheless, NeoFeed has learned from both government and opposition parliamentarians that there should be acceptance in the Legislature for the approval of at least some proposals in the regulatory area, which are included in the roadmap drawn up by the economic team of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) government, since they are not controversial and are at a more advanced stage of processing.

The assessment is that the most sensitive agenda of Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has already been approved, especially the tax agenda. Haddad is even leaving the Esplanade of Ministries. "No increase in the tax burden this year. The election year has already begun," said a leading government congressman.

Last year, the Treasury presented a total of 16 priority bills that it intended to have approved by the Legislature by the end of 2026. The list includes the remaining tax regulation projects – all of which were submitted and approved in 2025 – but also others that are still being processed in Congress, such as the Bankruptcy Law and the military pension reform (stalled in the Chamber since the end of 2024).

Among the most likely to pass this year, according to congressmen, are the bill that seeks to regulate artificial intelligence (AI); the provisional measure (MP) that establishes incentives for the installation of data centers , crucial for technology processing ( Redata ); and also a bill that regulates the operating institutions of financial market infrastructures (IMFs) in Brazil - auxiliary companies of the financial market that enable activities such as fund transfers, registration of financial assets, and clearing of debits and credits.

Authored by former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the AI project dates back to 2023, has already been approved by the senators, and has been under consideration in the Chamber of Deputies since last year. It is currently in a special committee created to debate the issue and awaits a report from the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), who also reported on the tax reform in the Chamber.

The Provisional Measure that creates the so-called Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services (Redata) was submitted by the government last September and needs to be approved by a joint committee, which has not yet been established, and must be considered by the plenary sessions of the Chamber and the Senate by February 25th to avoid lapsing. The Provisional Measure aims to increase the volume of data processing by data centers in Brazil through tax incentives.

Finally, the bill on financial infrastructure operators, also from 2023 and authored by the current federal government, has already been approved by the Chamber of Deputies and is currently being processed by Senate committees – it has already passed through the Committee on Economic Affairs (CAE) and is currently awaiting the appointment of a rapporteur. Subsequently, the proposal will go to the plenary.

Electoral climate

On Tuesday, February 3rd, Minister Gleisi Hoffmann (Institutional Relations), who will soon leave her post to run for a Senate seat in Paraná, will participate in the first meeting of the government leadership in the Chamber of Deputies to discuss which proposals the Presidential Palace wants more emphasis on in 2026. This will also help refine the coordination in defense of priority projects for the government. The government will also have a new leader in the Chamber: José Guimarães (PT-CE) will leave and Pedro Uczai (PT-SC) will take over.

In the last week of January, the Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), declared that the House's priority this year is the Constitutional Amendment on Security. He also indicated that in the first few weeks he should schedule the vote on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, which needs to be ratified by the National Congress. He also promised to put to a vote, this Monday, provisional measures such as the one dealing with the "People's Gas" program, which creates benefits for the population to cover part of the cost of cooking gas cylinders.

Upon returning to work, the government will have to deal with the tension surrounding a movement to establish a Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate the Master case, in addition to the nomination of the Minister of the Attorney General's Office (AGU), Jorge Messias , to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), which has not yet been sent to the Legislature and has already faced resistance from the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). This environment sets the tone for the overall voting scenario, not just for economic matters.

“Besides the priorities of the Treasury, which may pass this year, we will also try to advance the discussion of the PEC (Proposed Constitutional Amendment) for the 6-day work week. The government will work in this direction, and leaders from other political camps have also shown interest in voting on it,” says Congressman Nilto Tatto (PT-SP), one of the government's deputy leaders in the Chamber of Deputies, to NeoFeed .

The proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) is a major banner issue for left-wing parties and is being embraced by the government to end the so-called 6x1 work schedule. There are two proposed constitutional amendments on the subject: an older one from Congressman Reginaldo Lopes (PT-MG) and a more recent one from Congresswoman Érika Hilton (Psol-SP). The issue, which is currently being processed in the Chamber of Deputies and has not yet been approved, still has the potential to gain momentum in the presidential campaign.

More on the economic agenda.

Outside of the government's list of priorities, there are also important projects in the economic area that continue to be debated in 2026, but with less chance of progress given the necessary coordination and resistance involved in discussing these issues.

“I think we can move forward on data centers, on the PPP law [new Law on Concessions and Public-Private Partnerships], which has already passed in the Chamber and is in the Senate. And on critical and strategic minerals, and on the AI [Artificial Intelligence] project as well,” says Arnaldo Jardim (Cidadania-SP), who is on the board of the agribusiness caucus in Congress and currently the rapporteur for several projects, such as the one that aims to regulate critical minerals.

"The financial autonomy of the Central Bank, with all this heat from the Banco Master case, all this confusion, I think that's really put the roof on the table," he adds.

The bill granting financial autonomy to the Central Bank, authored by 42 senators and overseen by Senator Plínio Valério (PSDB-AM), has so far faced resistance from the government and even internally among Central Bank employees – while the auditors of the monetary authority (ANBCB) are in favor of the proposed constitutional amendment, the general union of the agency's employees (Sinal) is against it. Since the end of 2023, when it was filed, the proposal has remained under consideration in the first and only committee to date (CCJ), without being voted on.

In recent days, the senator has used his social media to say that the "resistance to the issue is political and not technical." He admits, however, to including in his text the expansion of oversight of investment funds in the country, allowing the Central Bank to also have this authority, as the government has been proposing.

Another contentious issue, the administrative reform bill currently being debated in the Chamber of Deputies, is already considered by parliamentarians to be highly unlikely to move forward in an election year. The government has not yet taken a position, but there is resistance from public sector employees and left-wing parties. The government of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) also attempted to advance a proposal on the subject, but was unsuccessful.

Even the rapporteur in the Chamber of Deputies, Congressman Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), has publicly admitted difficulties in moving the project forward, as there is still no indication from the Executive branch. "The agenda requires alignment between the branches of government and a decision from the Executive, something I've been saying for some time now," the congressman tweeted a month ago.

“Administrative reform is very important for us, but I don’t believe we can win it in an election year, but it can move forward,” says Congressman Joaquim Passarinho (PL-PA), who chairs the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship (FPE).