The recent surge in oil prices above US$100, driven by tensions in the Middle East, raises the question for investors: is it still worthwhile to ride this cycle in the sector's stocks? According to Vitor Sousa, an analyst at Genial Investimentos, the answer lies less in the "now" and more in what has already been priced in.
In an interview with Janela de Mercado , a NeoFeed program that gives voice to leading equity strategists, he highlighted that Brazil is an exporter of the commodity, which helps both the flow of foreign exchange and the results of oil companies, especially Petrobras, which combines high production in the pre-salt layer with low extraction costs. The refining arm, however, can act as a political buffer for prices, limiting some of the gains.
Among the independent companies, Prio combines production growth, cost reduction, and the capture of operational synergies. PetroReconcavo, on the other hand, faces a more structural challenge. The difficulty in expanding production limits its ability to capture the positive oil cycle.
In this case, the valuation depends much more on the price of the commodity, a variable common to the entire sector and not a competitive advantage.
Finally, Brava Energia has financial decisions that limit its gains from rising oil prices, which reduces the conversion of external factors into cash generation.
Watch the video to understand which of these stocks are already at their peak and which ones still have room for gains, according to Sousa, given the conflict in Iran.
