Arcos Dorados, the largest independent McDonald's franchisee in the world and present in 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, announced part of its projections for 2026 this Wednesday, January 28th.
Regarding new store openings, the package shows a slight increase in the chain's appetite, which projects opening between 105 and 115 restaurants in the region by 2026. The group closed last year with 102 new locations.
Of the total openings in 2025, 64 were in Brazil , the main market for the operation. Another 23 involved the Southern Latin American division and the remaining 15 the Northern division of the region. Of the units opened, 73 are operated by the company itself.
“This year we will continue to pursue growth in the number of units and the modernization of our existing restaurants, with an emphasis on optimizing our development process,” said Luis Raganato, CEO of Arcos Dorados, in a statement.
The executive added: “Several initiatives are underway to increase the return on our capital investments, and we expect to be able to provide more details throughout the year.”
As part of this guidance, the group projects a total investment of between US$275 million and US$325 million. This figure includes all openings, modernizations, optimizations, and maintenance expenses for the restaurant portfolio, as well as investments in its information technology systems and resources.
According to the company, the expectation is to finance these resources with operating cash flow and available cash. The company also reported that it estimates the total invested in 2025 will be close to the lower limit of its guidance for the period, which was US$300 million to US$350 million.
According to the most recent public data, Arcos Dorados closed the period from January to September 2025 with 2,479 restaurants – 1,202 in Brazil – and revenue of US$3.41 billion, representing a growth of 2.6% over the same period of the previous year.
During this period, the Brazilian operation recorded revenue of US$1.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. In the country, during these nine months of 2025, the group reported an operating profit of US$194.4 million, an increase of 4.3%.
In a recent report sent to clients in December, Santander raised its target price for Arcos Dorados shares by the end of 2026 from US$8.50 to US$8.70, but maintained its neutral recommendation for the stock.
"Despite our long-term confidence in Arcos Dorados' market leadership in the quick-service restaurant segment in Latin America, we believe that the short-term dynamics remain unfavorable for the company," wrote the Santander analysts.
Among other points, the bank highlighted that in Brazil, which historically represents about 50% of the group's EBITDA, sales trends have been persistently weak, with same-store sales remaining below local inflation, despite the company's efforts.
Analysts highlighted that this context could lead to another year below expectations. They added that the unexpected slowdown in sales in the Northern Division adds another layer of uncertainty to this scenario.
Arcos Dorados shares closed Tuesday's trading session, January 27th, down 0.13%, at US$7.75. In pre-market trading this morning, the shares are down 0.26%. Over the past 12 months, the accumulated increase is 4.4%. The group is valued at US$1.63 billion.
