FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights) have emerged from market ostracism in recent years to become one of the protagonists. With a net worth of R$ 727 billion, according to Anbima, their size has doubled since 2022 and quadrupled since 2020 .
In recent years, credit funds have been among the main buyers in this industry, seeing FIDCs as a more profitable alternative to traditional debentures, which for years have paid unattractive spreads .
However, given the increase in defaults, the market has become more cautious about investing in these funds. The concerns stem especially from credit managers interviewed by NeoFeed , who say they are being more selective in choosing FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights).
Data from the Uqbar platform shows a 19% increase in defaults on FIDC (Investment Funds in Credit Rights) compared to the beginning of the year. These figures exclude credit recovery funds, where the volume of delinquencies is, by nature, higher.
There are R$28.6 billion in overdue loans out of a portfolio of R$505 billion. Of this amount, the majority comes from personal credit FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights), which represent 41% of the total volume of overdue loans and only 18% of the portfolio. In this category, 13.5% of the credit is overdue, with a 24% increase in delinquency between January and October, to R$11.8 billion.
Personal credit FIDCs include a range of financing structures aimed at individuals, from public sector payroll loans to unsecured loans for those with negative credit history.
Alfredo Marrucho, a partner at Uqbar, explains that, because many funds are new, there is still a significant risk that these volumes will increase as the credit cycles of these funds mature.
“Since many FIDCs are still recent, current default indicators do not fully capture the risk of the portfolios. Everything is wonderful at the beginning, but as the portfolio and history grow, origination problems begin to appear,” says Marrucho.
With growth above the industry average, the portfolio of personal credit FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights) has increased more than fivefold since 2020, when interest rates were at low levels. According to Marrucho, most of this default on personal credit stems from unsecured transactions.
This year, however, its cumulative expansion through October was 30%, according to Uqbar data, compared to a 35% increase for the industry as a whole, revealing greater caution on the part of investors and originators.
Paulo Machado, head of credit at Drýs Capital, says he has been making an extra effort in analyzing FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights) since June, when the Selic rate peaked at 15%. "Some managers approve anything because there are good rates, but we are being absurdly conservative."
An exclusive survey conducted by Uqbar at the request of NeoFeed shows that, among the personal credit FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights) that experienced the highest increase in delinquency rates during the year, were Jeitto, which went from 36.2% to 81.4% delinquency, and Blipay, with an increase from 10.3% to 41%.
The Jeitto case, already reported by NeoFeed , involves loan operations for low-income populations, who are more sensitive to a worsening macroeconomic scenario.
The FIDC, which has the highest default rate, is the largest among Jeitto's financing structures, with R$ 481.7 million in net assets. Blipay, with an FIDC of R$ 81 million in net assets, operates in personal loans and salary advances.
In nominal terms, noteworthy cases include Investcred, with R$ 1.6 billion in arrears out of a portfolio of R$ 2.4 billion, and Payjoy, a smartphone financing company for those with negative credit histories, with R$ 544 million in defaults out of a portfolio of R$ 958 million.
“Unsecured personal loans tend to have a higher delinquency rate compared to types of loans like payroll loans. It's not that all of them are bad, but it's necessary to carefully examine the structure, origination, and history,” says Marrucho.
A manager, responsible for R$4 billion in credit strategies, believes that this scenario could still deteriorate. "One thing I'm certain of is that default rates will increase because they are related to interest rates, and those rates are still lagging behind. We see this affecting individuals and small and medium-sized businesses a lot," says this manager.
With greater caution regarding unsecured loan FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights), what sustained the category's expansion during the year was private payroll loan financing — popularized by the relaxation of rules for granting this type of credit by fintechs and financial institutions.
Although the novelty has attracted part of the industry, Machado, from Drýs Capital, says he has maintained extra caution with this class of FIDCs.
“Private payroll loans, under the current methodology, are very recent. They don't even have 12 months of history and they're already structuring FIDC (Credit Rights Investment Funds) for five or six years,” says Machado. “Default rates are low, but that doesn't mean much. Simply put, there hasn't been enough statistical time for the stress to appear. We don't know how this credit will behave if there's a significant volume of layoffs.”
NeoFeed reached out to Blipay, InvestCred, Jeitto, and PayJoy for comment on the default data for their FIDCs (Investment Funds in Credit Rights), but received no response by the time of publication.
