Even in a market accustomed to mood swings, the latest edition of the “Investment Manager Survey – Brazil Equities,” by Itaú BBA , shows a change on the eve of 2026. The average confidence index of managers in Brazilian stocks, called the market's “bear-bull” thermometer, rose to 7.18 points, on a scale of zero to ten, the second highest level since the beginning of the series.

The survey of 127 experts consolidates the perceptions of long-only managers, hedge funds, and local and global institutional investors. It also provides a snapshot of what professional investors are anticipating for the next six months.

While the BBA thermometer showed investors "stuck," with defensive strategies and distrustful of the fiscal and interest rate trajectory, by August there were already signs of recovery and moderate optimism.

The survey, conducted between November 28 and December 5, regarding the fourth quarter of this year, shows no euphoria, but rather a trend towards risk-taking.

According to the report, 78.7% of respondents maintain a positive outlook for the Brazilian stock market over the next six months, while only 5% adopt a negative stance.

The number reinforces the gradual shift that has been observed since the middle of the year, when the pessimism caused by high interest rates and fiscal uncertainties began to subside.

Even with fiscal noise and fixed income volatility, the stock market's price asymmetry has become more attractive. The weighted average of estimates for the Ibovespa at the end of next year is around 189,000 points – approximately 20% higher than the current score.

This upside does not represent a speculative jump, but a repricing path in an environment of still high interest rates.

There is a conviction that the worst of the aversion cycle is over. Just over 9 out of 10 respondents (91%) believe that Brazil should receive significant net inflows into the stock market in the next six months. Half of the sample also expects greater allocation from investors specializing in emerging markets.

From a portfolio perspective, there is a pattern of choice with a preference for utility companies, large banks, and construction companies, which lead with an overweight of 58.3%, 49.6%, and 35.4%, respectively.

On the other hand, the most avoided sectors continue to be those linked to commodities, such as oil and gas, mining, and pulp and paper.

Regarding preferred stocks, the survey places Nubank , Axia (formerly Eletrobras), BTG , and Itaú at the top of the list. And Localiza , specifically, appears as the name with the greatest potential return for the following semester – the average exposure of hedge funds jumped to 15.6%, the highest level ever recorded by Itaú BBA in this series.

The document also includes macroeconomic projections. From this perspective, managers remain attentive to domestic politics and interest rates. 70% of respondents point to the political scenario as the most influential factor, while 63% cite the local yield curve.

For analysts, this confirms that, unlike other cycles, 2026 will not be guided by growth narratives, but rather by the technical interplay of monetary policy and fiscal risk.

Another sensitive point is the long-term interest rate curve. The survey indicates that managers project a drop of approximately one percentage point (100 basis points) for 10-year nominal bonds over a six-month horizon.

According to Itaú BBA, this convergence between managers' expectations and market pricing tends to be one of the most important drivers of the sectoral repositioning observed in portfolios.

The expected Selic rate by the end of 2026 is concentrated in the range between 12% and 12.5%, a reduction of up to 2.5 percentage points compared to the current basic interest rate.