Nearly a month into the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, it already represents the greatest threat to global energy security in history. This warning was issued by Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times .

He pointed out that, in the wake of the conflict, about one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply is trapped in the Persian Gulf, a larger volume, in the case of oil, than the shocks of the 1970s. And, in the case of gas, twice what Europe lost in 2022 in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

In this context, Birol observed that politicians and markets are underestimating the scale and impact of this disruption to the global supply chain.

“People understand that this is a major challenge, but I’m not sure if the depth and consequences of the situation are well understood,” said Birol, who helped coordinate Europe’s response to the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

He highlighted that “vital arteries” have been disrupted, affecting the global supply of fertilizers for crops, petrochemicals for plastics, clothing and manufacturing, as well as sulfur and helium. “These are vital commodities for the global economy,” he said.

The head of the agency that manages the oil and gas reserves of its member countries stated that he could not speculate on how much oil and gas prices might rise. However, he stressed that the effects are likely to worsen as long as maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

Birol also stressed that even if the war ends soon, it will take a long time to recover the oil and gas fields in the Persian Gulf region. "Some will take six months to become operational, others much longer," he stated.

Amid the conflict, last week the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil and refined products from global reserves to alleviate shortages worldwide, which, according to Birol, represents only 20% of its reserves.

“I still have 80% in my pocket,” he said. He stressed, however, that these volumes would not solve the energy shortage in the Middle East. “The most important action is the resumption of transport through the Strait of Hormuz.”

He further urged European politicians not to relax restrictions on Russian gas, stressing that they should not repeat the mistake of relying excessively on the country's energy flows. He also stated that Russian gas makes little economic sense, as its price is traditionally tied to oil.

"Russian gas would cost close to the current price of gas in Europe," he said, adding that Russia's Nord Stream pipelines were not operational and that Moscow's reputation as a reliable, long-term supplier had been destroyed.

Birol also highlighted that the energy crisis could trigger a wave of political changes by governments around the world and compared the situation to how politicians reacted to the two oil shocks in 1973 and 1979.

“There were three responses. More than 40% of the nuclear energy we have today was built in response to that crisis. The amount of fuel a typical car uses has halved in the 10 years following the shock. And countries have changed their trade routes,” he said.

Regarding the current conflict, he predicted a renewed impetus for the transition to renewable energies, another boom in nuclear power, and a push for electric cars. But also a return to the use of more coal instead of gas.