With the potential change in leadership in the Venezuelan oil market, following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro by the administration of US President Donald Trump, it is highly unlikely that Petrobras will be able to benefit from a larger share of exports.
The likely scenario is that, should China, which receives 80% of Venezuelan oil production, need to find another supplier initially to avoid supply interruptions, the priority would be Saudi Arabia, not the Brazilian state-owned company.
The assessment comes from David Zylbersztajn, who was the director-general of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) between January 1998 and October 2001. According to him, the state-owned company has not prepared itself, over the years, to absorb large international markets.
“Petrobras doesn’t have the stockpiles or the surplus production large enough to be able to do that,” says Zylbersztajn, in an interview with NeoFeed . “I don’t see where Brazil can benefit from this.”
Venezuela currently produces around 1 million barrels of oil per day, well below its potential, according to the expert. This means that at least 800,000 barrels go to China, a volume that would be difficult for the Brazilian company to guarantee.
"It's not much in terms of the global market, but it would be a lot for Petrobras, which produced the equivalent of 4 million barrels per day in November, to take on that volume overnight," says the expert.
In any case, the Brazilian oil company has been increasing its export volume over the months. In the third quarter of 2025, the company exported the equivalent of 814,000 barrels per day, a growth of 36.1% over the same period of the previous year.
China was the main market for Brazilian products, accounting for 53% of total exports. Next came other Asian countries, with 19%, followed by Europe with 15%, and Latin America with 10%.
The issue, according to the former director of the ANP (National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels), is that American companies, such as Chevron , which already operates in Venezuela through a joint venture with the state-owned PDVSA, will have priority in the production and sale abroad of oil produced in the South American country.
"China could quickly turn off Venezuela's tap and turn on another. Middle Eastern countries produce primarily for export, unlike Brazil," says the former head of the ANP.
Still, in his view, the trend is for the country to grow in the volume of oil exported. "Brazil could become the fourth largest global oil exporter in the coming years. But this is a process. It's not quick," he explains.
“We are paying a price for the mistake made in the past, at least 15 years ago, when Brazil went five years without holding production auctions. Today, the trajectory is correct, despite the natural limitations,” says the former director-general.
The biggest concern, according to Zylbersztajn, is directly related to the drop in the price of oil on the global market, as occurred on the morning of Monday, January 5th. A significant change could affect the company's investment cycle.
"I believe the price of a barrel should fall because there is a strong possibility of an increase in global supply, and it is unlikely that demand will grow at the same rate," he says.
According to him, Venezuela should grow between 2% and 3% in daily production volume, starting with the entry of American companies into the South American country's oil market. "Petrobras could be an important player in this recovery, but the priority will certainly be given to companies from the United States."
The question now is whether, based on the United States' military action, with a clear focus on Venezuelan oil, as Trump himself made clear in a press conference last Saturday, January 3rd, this geopolitical move could hinder Petrobras' investments in exploration in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, on the equatorial margin.
The region, seen as Brazil's "new pre-salt," located in deep waters off Amapá, may contain the equivalent of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, which would represent a 34% increase in Brazil's reserves.
Petrobras plans to invest US$3 billion by 2029 to carry out drilling in blocks on the Equatorial Margin. And it is this amount that could be jeopardized by a change in the price of oil.
“The price of oil is affecting companies' business plans. The situation could become more complex. These investments may be affected by economic issues, and not necessarily by a strategic vision,” predicts Zylbersztajn.
Petrobras shares traded lower during trading on Monday, January 5th, on the B3 stock exchange. Around 4:30 PM, the company's shares were down 1.8%.
Over the past 12 months, the decline has reached 16.7%. Petrobras is valued at R$ 400 billion.
