The global geopolitical crisis caused by the war in Iran and the volatility that usually marks a presidential election year in Brazil are already affecting, sooner than expected, one of the most sought-after products in the financial market – incentivized debentures , essential for structuring financing for large infrastructure projects.

According to data from Anbima, the market for incentivized debentures moved R$ 177.97 billion in 2025, the highest annual volume in the historical series, surpassing the R$ 135.11 billion of 2024.

Despite the extensive calendar of infrastructure auctions for this year, the volume of incentivized debenture issuances in 2026 is expected to be lower than that recorded in 2025. This is the forecast by JGP Financial Advisory, the investment banking arm of the asset manager, in a study that NeoFeed obtained firsthand.

According to JGP , greater volatility in the incentivized debenture market was already expected in the second half of the year due to the presidential election. However, instability in the international scenario, including the effects of the war in Iran, generated uncertainty in the pricing of these securities at the beginning of the year.

“In an election year, companies that can bring forward their fundraising to the first half of the year or postpone it to the end of the year, avoiding the period of greatest instability, but the crisis in Iran has affected the market, causing significant fluctuations in bond spreads,” says Diego Maurell, partner responsible for the Infrastructure and Energy vertical at JGP Financial Advisory. The spread is the “premium” that the company needs to pay above the rate considered risk-free, usually the interest on government bonds.

The effects are visible. Debenture issuances totaled approximately R$ 14.8 billion in the first two months of 2026, down from R$ 25.4 billion in the same period of 2025. "Spreads closed in January, but opened significantly in February and March, leaving the market without a clear benchmark," says Maurell.

The opening and closing of spreads on debentures acts as a direct indicator of investor confidence. When this premium falls, it means the market is more comfortable financing companies; when it rises, it indicates a higher perception of risk and a lower willingness to lend.

Maurell says the debt market is disorganized. "Episodes like those involving Raízen and other groups, the war in Iran, and the uncertainty about interest rates, both in Brazil and abroad, have shaken pricing," says the manager.

According to him, banks – which had been left with unsold securities at the end of last year, when there was a large rush to issue incentivized debentures due to the government's threat to tax this product, which ultimately remained exempt – are having difficulty providing accurate price readings, leading companies to suspend or postpone fundraising.

Auction pipeline

Despite expectations of reduced fundraising, the pace of infrastructure auctions remains intense. According to the auction schedule for 2026, more than R$ 127 billion is projected for concessions of federal and state highways, approximately R$ 65 billion for sanitation projects, and a significant pipeline of port auctions.

The electricity sector alone is expected to approve nearly R$ 140 billion in projects, including auctions for reserve capacity, new transmission lines, and the first auction for energy storage systems (BESS), which could generate more than R$ 5 billion.

JGP believes, however, that the new cycle of concessions is not yet immediately reflected in the market for incentivized debentures because projects tend to follow a phased financial dynamic. "Generally, an infrastructure project is financed with 70-80% debt and 20-30% equity," says the manager.

In the first few months after winning an auction, companies generally resort to bridge loans linked to the CDI (Brazilian interbank deposit rate), which serve to cover the initial mobilization and start-up costs. Only later, when the assets are already in the implementation or operation phase and the project risk decreases, do long-term debt issuances, such as incentivized debentures, make sense.

“For this reason, the most robust impact of this investment pipeline should only appear between 2027 and 2028, when the projects are mature enough to access the market under more suitable conditions,” Maurell points out.

Another relevant trend in the sector cited by the JGP study is the increasing entry of financial investors into the bidding for infrastructure assets. Asset managers and funds have been directly participating in auctions or forming partnerships with strategic operators to expand their presence in the sector.

“Investment funds, such as Kinea and Opportunity , are increasingly becoming partners in infrastructure projects, co-investing with strategic players,” says Maurell. But this entry, according to him, does not reduce the need to issue debentures, since these funds contribute the share capital and the company still needs to raise debt to finance the rest of the project.

For companies that have reached their debt leverage limit, hybrid capital structures exist. One of them is the issuance of preferred shares in an already mature asset. This allows them to raise capital to invest in new projects without increasing the holding company's debt. The sanitation giant Aegea and the waste management company Orizon are examples of companies that have used this strategy to generate liquidity.

“Strategies such as hybrid capital are gaining ground, but the dynamics of raising debt remain central to making projects viable,” says Maurell.

The start of the Selic rate cut cycle by the Central Bank, in turn, is seen as a good sign for the viability of infrastructure projects – high interest rates make debt more expensive, potentially preventing some players from participating in auctions, especially in sectors with tight margins.

But Maurell predicts it will take some time for the Selic rate to significantly affect the market for incentivized debentures. "A future drop in interest rates should accelerate the debt market, but the movement won't be fast enough to generate a major impact this year."