In a discussion process that began in July 2014, was interrupted, and regained momentum in 2024, Rio Tinto and Glencore resumed negotiations that could create the world's largest mining company, with a market value exceeding US$200 billion.
The move by the two companies comes as the race for copper and other metals fuels the industry's return to large acquisitions. The companies confirmed that negotiations are underway.
There is a prospect that Rio Tinto, the largest of them all, currently with a market cap of US$133 billion, will buy Glencore through a judicial settlement, according to sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal .
Copper prices have reached a record high of over US$13,300 per ton in recent days, highlighting a market deficit that analysts say could reach 10 million tons by 2040.
Making agreements of this type can help mining companies increase their production more quickly than building new mines, which typically takes years due to licensing hurdles and risks budget overruns.
Rio Tinto's willingness to discuss negotiations with Glencore comes just months after the company revamped its leadership team. In an initial statement to employees, Rio Tinto's new CEO, Simon Trott, promised "fundamental" changes at the company. In December, Trott outlined plans to cut costs and sell assets.
“We are surprised that Rio Tinto got involved with Glencore in the merger, given that the message to investors has emphasized simplicity,” Prasad Patkar, head of qualitative investments at Platypus Asset Management, told the WSJ .
According to UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto has until February 5th to confirm whether it will make an offer for Glencore or withdraw from the deal for six months. Glencore has a market capitalization of approximately US$71.6 billion, according to FactSet.
In December, Glencore's CEO, Gary Nagle, revealed to the Financial Times that he was the one who anticipated the resumption of negotiations and added that the mining sector needed more scale.
"It makes sense to create larger companies. Not just for the sake of size, but also to create substantial synergies, generate relevance, and attract capital," the executive stated at the time.
The Australian company BHP Group, the world's largest mining company by market value (US$162 billion), recently made a new offer to buy Anglo American, a proposal that was rejected. At the end of 2025, Anglo merged with the Canadian company Teck Resources, which put pressure on other companies in the sector.
Glencore had already made an offer for Teck and ended up acquiring its coal business in 2024. "BHP wanted Anglo's copper assets," states a report from the investment bank Jefferies.
"Anglo wanted, and we believe will likely get, Teck's copper assets. And Rio Tinto considered a transaction with Glencore to gain leverage over its operational copper assets and expansion projects," the analysis concludes.
Glencore is the world's sixth-largest copper producer and the largest publicly traded coal producer. Its expansion plan includes the development of a new copper mine in Argentina, which would lead to annual copper production of 1.6 million tons by 2035, nearly double the current level.
The company holds a stake in the Collahuasi mine in Chile, one of the world's richest copper deposits, as well as several other copper mines, smelters, and refineries worldwide.
Rio Tinto's copper businesses include the Kennecott mine in Utah, in the United States, and a long-delayed project in Arizona that, when it comes online, could supply 25% of American demand for the industrial metal.
One possibility seen by the market is that Rio Tinto and Glencore could merge their iron ore and coal businesses into a company listed on the Australian stock exchange and then separate their base metals assets.
Another possibility is that Glencore will divest its coal business, to be sold to a competitor. Rio Tinto, which exited the coal industry in 2018, seeks to diversify its activities, reducing its dependence on iron ore, which represented almost 80% of its profits until 2024.
A combined company, excluding coal, would derive most of its revenue from copper, followed by iron ore and aluminum, according to Jefferies. "We do not expect Glencore to be acquired in a no-premium merger," the bank says.
Glencore shares on the London Stock Exchange are trading 10.8% higher this Friday morning, January 9th. Over the past 12 months, the shares have risen 25.1%.
On the Australian stock exchange, Rio Tinto shares fell 6.2% on Friday. On an annualized basis, the company has accumulated a gain of 20.1%.
