In addition to all the problems caused in the Brazilian and global productive sector, the recent rise in international oil and natural gas prices may put pressure on energy generation costs in the country, with effects that tend to reach the consumer's pocket.
The warning comes from the consulting firm Thymus Energia , which released a study predicting the impact of rising fuel prices on two indicators of the electricity system that are passed on to electricity bills.
One of them is the increase in the Fuel Consumption Account (CCC), which subsidizes energy generation in isolated systems, especially in the Northern Region. Another point of concern is the increase in the Unit Variable Cost (CVU) of thermoelectric plants. In both cases, energy generation depends on fossil fuels, whose price increase ends up impacting the electricity tariff.
Another survey, by TR Soluções , estimates that contracting power for the Brazilian electrical system through the reserve capacity auctions ( LRCAPs ) in March will generate an annual cost of R$ 48 billion in charges starting at the beginning of the next decade, which will also be passed on to electricity bills. By 2032, consumers will see a 7.5% increase in tariffs, and large industries, 13.5%.
The Thymus study does not calculate how much electricity tariffs will be impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, especially since fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices are still ongoing.
During the war in Ukraine in 2022, for example, Brent crude – the oil index used as an international benchmark for prices – reached over US$139 per barrel. During the same period, the CCC (Central Bank of Ukraine) recorded a 41% growth compared to the previous year, driven by the rise in fossil fuel prices.
Now, with the new surge in the Middle East, Brent crude has once again surpassed the US$100 per barrel mark, reaching US$109.27 on April 7th, reigniting concerns about the pressure on this charge. The bad news is that, unlike other indicators, the CCC (Cost of Fuel Consumption) does not have a legally defined ceiling, meaning that any increase is fully passed on to the consumer through the Energy Development Account (CDE).
The increase in the Unit Variable Cost (UVC) of thermal power plants also deserves attention. "From the moment fuels become more expensive, these plants become more costly for the electrical system," says Ana Paula Ferme, Head of Utilities and Economic Regulation at Thymos.
Furthermore, April marks the beginning of the dry season in the country, with less rainfall. In a more restrictive hydrological scenario, the effect of the increased variable energy costs (CVU) could be even more intense, since the lower water availability tends to increase thermal dispatch precisely in a context of more expensive fuels.
According to Ferme, the consequence is an increase in the Settlement Price of Differences (PLD), a benchmark for the short-term energy market, with the potential to further pressure the cost of energy in the country. In other words, energy purchase contracts from distributors may be subject to adjustments due to the increase in the PLD and the thermal cost, further pressuring tariffs.
The effects, however, should not be perceived homogeneously or simultaneously. The increase in the PLD (Price of Energy in the Spot Market) should be felt more immediately. The impacts on the CCC (Cost of Goods Sold) are more likely to materialize later, being noticed more intensely in subsequent tariff cycles.
If the crisis intensifies and the CDE budget is revised during 2026, the consequences could affect consumers as early as this year. "The repercussions may not be limited to the electricity sector," warns the Thymus expert. "The increased cost of energy tends to put pressure on inflation and affect the competitiveness of the Brazilian economy as a whole."
Expensive auction
The survey by TR Soluções brought more bad news to the electricity sector. According to the consultancy, contracting power through the reserve capacity auctions of March 18 and 20 will generate an annual cost of R$ 48 billion in charges starting at the beginning of the next decade.
Although the biggest impact is expected after 2030, some of the burden will already begin to be felt in 2026. This is because the consultancy indicates that the increase in the power charge should represent an average increase of 0.4% in the tariffs of captive consumers this year.
In practice, the study by TR Soluções reinforced the disappointment with the LRCAP model, which generated criticism regarding the high contracted power and low competition in the auction – in which gas and coal-fired thermal power plants were contracted, in addition to hydroelectric and thermal power plants powered by fuel oil and biodiesel.
In total, 18,977 megawatts (MW) of power were contracted, involving investments of R$ 64.5 billion and an average discount of only 5.52%. At the time of the auction, calculations by Abrace Energia – an association of large industrial energy consumers – estimated an annual cost of R$ 40 billion, impacting the average electricity tariff for Brazilians by approximately 10%, compared to the 7.5% now estimated by TR Soluções.
However, the study by TR Soluções predicts a greater increase for industrial consumers operating in the free energy market, who will now participate in the sharing of power contracting charges. The reserve charge is expected to rise from the current R$7 per MWh megawatt-hour (MWh) to R$78 per MWh in 2032.
Previously, power expenses in the Brazilian electrical system were paid by consumers in the regulated market, but now customers in the free contracting environment will also share these costs, which explains the projected increase of 13.5%.
