While investors try to anticipate the impact of the presidential race on the financial market, Fernando Siqueira, head of research at Eleven Financial, says that even in a scenario that traditionally delivers volatility, the Ibovespa should end the year around 195,000 points.
According to him, three factors are weighing more heavily than politics: the gradual fall in interest rates, the expansion of corporate profits, and the return of foreign interest in emerging markets.
Petrobras and Banco do Brasil, two state-owned companies frequently used as barometers of political risk, appear among Eleven's favorites. The interpretation is that a significant portion of the fears are already priced in and that the electoral cycle may end up acting more as a catalyst than a threat to the stocks.
The third bet is Localiza. Less dependent on politics and more linked to the economic cycle, the company has characteristics that usually attract investors when interest rates start to fall: consistent results, operational improvement, and strong sensitivity to the cost of capital.
Watch the video to understand what three other actions Siqueira sees – cautiously – this year.
