The Ibovespa is projected to rise by approximately 6% in 2026, but this figure masks a very different reality for a large part of the Brazilian stock market. In an interview with Janela de Mercado , Rafael Ragazzi, an analyst at Nord Investimentos, highlighted that this money is concentrated in a few companies, especially Petrobras and Vale.
"Those who have invested in these two stocks are tracking the index. But those who have invested in basically the rest of the stock market are not having a very positive performance," Ragazzi stated.
While the state-owned company benefited from the surge in oil prices following the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, construction companies faced concerns related to construction costs and inflation, and banks came under pressure from fears of increased default rates.
Despite this, Ragazzi sees opportunities for long-term gains. Among the banks, Inter stands out. Its shares fell about 15% after the latest earnings report, but the analyst believes the market overreacted to the increase in defaults.
According to him, a significant part of the movement was caused by seasonal factors and the expansion of the private payroll loan portfolio, without indicating a structural deterioration in credit quality. "We believe that this market reaction was greatly exaggerated," he said. "For those with a long-term horizon, we believe it's a great buying opportunity."
In the real estate sector, the focus is on MRV. The company has refocused on the Minha Casa Minha Vida (My House, My Life) program and is advancing its divestment process in the United States. For Nord, the market is still pricing in past problems and not the potential for recovery in results in the coming years.
