Eneva may advance in the electricity sector auction with a new twist in the dispute.

The dispute over the 2026 Reserve Capacity Auction ( LRCap ) for the electricity sector , which took place in March, has entered a new chapter that could further expand Eneva 's dominance in the bidding process.

The Permanent Auction Commission (CPL) of Aneel recommended, in a technical note, maintaining the disqualification of the ION and Evolution Power Partners ( EPP ) consortia, paving the way for two Eneva projects—totaling approximately 790 megawatts (MW)—to be called for the qualification stage. However, the decision is not yet final and depends on a ruling by the agency's board.

If confirmed, the selection of the new projects would expand Eneva's portfolio, which had already grown significantly with the March auction. In the LRCAP 2026 auction, the company contracted 5.06 gigawatts (GW), exceeding 10 GW of total capacity and securing new contracts for existing and future assets.

Operating in an integrated manner across the segments of natural gas exploration and production, thermoelectric power generation, and energy trading, Eneva is recognized as the largest thermoelectric power plant operator in the country.

The recommendation from Aneel's technical area rejects EPP's appeal and maintains that there is no possibility of partial qualification of the projects. The CPL also reinforces that the corporate restructuring presented by the company, involving the entry of J&F as a shareholder, occurred after the submission of the documentation and, therefore, cannot be considered to meet the requirements of the tender.

According to the statement, the nine projects of the ION consortia — totaling 1.7 GW — presented inconsistencies in the demonstration of economic and financial capacity, including double counting of assets and unproven operations.

With the withdrawal of these projects, the list of remaining projects includes four power plants that had valid bids in the 2028 and 2029 rounds: two from Eneva, totaling 790.95 MW, and two from Global Participações em Energia, with 555 MW.

If the board of directors of Aneel confirms the disqualification, all must be summoned to present qualification documentation, although this does not represent automatic hiring. At 1:14 PM, Eneva's shares showed a slight increase of 0.62%, a positive result compared to the 1.06% decline in the overall Ibovespa index.

However, Itaú BBA's analysis strikes a cautious tone. According to the bank, CPL's recommendation increases the chances of Eneva being called upon, but does not yet represent a realized gain. "We see this technical note as a potential option for the company, and not as an already realized additional gain," stated analysts Fillipe Andrade, Lucas Guimarães, and Lorena Fernandez.

The report highlights that Eneva has already used all the equipment previously contracted for its winning projects and that any expansion would require alternatives given the availability of turbines and the uncertainty surrounding the process timeline.

Nevertheless, the bank does not rule out the possibility of the company seeking flexibility in its portfolio should the opportunity offer an attractive return.

Itaú BBA also draws attention to the systemic impact of removing 1.77 GW from EPP, which would reduce the volume effectively contracted in the auction to approximately 1.35 GW — a scenario that reinforces recent warnings from ONS about the need to expand power contracting in the coming years.

Expanded portfolio

The winning projects from Eneva in the March auction involve investments of R$ 18.2 billion and strengthen the company's strategy of expanding port infrastructure, access to the international gas market, and operational flexibility.

In addition to the thermal power plants already in operation, the company had three new projects contracted through the auction: Porto de Sergipe 2 (1.3 GW), Jandaia (1.2 GW), and a project in the Southeast region with 1.15 GW. The latter two include the construction of LNG regasification terminals, which can be integrated into the company's gas trading business.

With the potential activation of the additional 790 MW, Eneva would further consolidate its position as the largest thermoelectric operator in the country and the main winner of LRCap 2026.

But for now, the scenario remains uncertain: the final decision rests with the board of directors of Aneel, which has not yet ruled on EPP's appeal nor on the situation of TermoG, another project whose disqualification could influence the total volume of projects called for.