Investment banks are preparing to turn the page in 2026.

With the countdown to the end of the IPO drought underway, investment banks (IBs) in Brazil hope to forget 2025, which recorded consolidated commission revenue estimated at US$710 million, a 4% decline compared to the same period of the previous year, according to a survey by the consulting firm Dealogic commissioned by NeoFeed .

The survey is a proxy for investment bank revenues, considering that each institution organizes its departments and areas of operation differently, with some having parts of their units in other countries. It is also based on publicly available data and estimates of fees in mergers and acquisitions (M&As).

According to Dealogic's survey, the negative highlights were the low equity issuances (ECM), the sluggish M&A activity, as well as fixed income issuances (DCM), which cooled after the record high of 2024. As a result, the consolidated commission revenue of banks fell for the fourth consecutive year.

Even so, each bank performed well in one area, according to Dealogic data. Itaú BBA led the ranking in revenue and DCM. In M&As, BTG Pactual had the best performance. And, in ECM, first place went to JP Morgan .

Although 2025 was a difficult year for the industry, the signs seen at the end of last year, with the renewed interest in transactions and improved market conditions, indicate a more promising 2026, according to bankers interviewed by NeoFeed .

"What we are seeing for 2026 is an improvement in the market, with equities showing signs of recovery," says Anderson Brito , head of IB at UBS BB . "And with some of the resources raised from IPOs and follow-ons going to inorganic movements and M&As, consequently the ECM market, which has been negatively affected for a long time, ends up increasing."

This recovery should be driven by tailwinds such as the expected drop in the Selic rate and the reallocation of global resources beyond the United States, factors that have boosted the local market – the Ibovespa closed 2025 with an accumulated gain of 34%, its best annual performance since 2016, at 161,125.37 points.

This scenario paves the way for ending the IPO drought, although the recovery is expected to be slow, considering that the Selic rate, even with the prospect of a decrease, will still be considered high – the Focus Bulletin projects a rate of 12.25% by the end of 2026. This is without taking into account the uncertainties of the electoral scenario, which add volatility and affect the issuance windows.

But bankers point out that deals are already starting to appear. Aegea began preparations for an IPO last year, while BRK Ambiental filed a request with the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission). PicPay decided to go to the US, in a deal that could raise US$500 million .

“We are seeing a very different movement for the year 2026, with offers to be announced, perhaps in January, at the latest February, with offers already on the market,” says Leonardo Cabral , head of IB at Santander .

Fabio Nazari, partner and head of equity capital markets at BTG Pactual, states that the entry of foreign investors with a long-term profile should make the recovery more sustainable, unlike the profile seen in the recent past.

“Those entering today are long-only investors , not hedge funds; they have a long-term vision. They can't buy assets in China , Russia, and Turkey like before, while in India they've already bought a lot,” says Nazari. “By elimination, they come to Brazil or Mexico , where deals are made in ADRs, because the market lacks depth.”

In M&As, the outlook is for new deals and the completion of those already agreed upon in 2025, a positive factor for IB revenues. "The year 2025 ended on a more positive note, with announced transactions and other non-public ones that progressed well in the last quarter," says Thiago Rocha, head of M&A at Santander.

Just as in ECM, foreign investors should continue to play a key role in M&As, especially in the largest deals, in areas such as infrastructure and energy, which were prominent in 2025, according to Roderick Greenlees , global head of IB at Itaú BBA.

“We are entering 2026 with a pipeline similar to that of 2025, which was already much better than that of 2024,” he says. “What’s interesting is the strong return of the Chinese to the market.”

Even with the prospect of a stock market recovery, it will still take time for fixed income to lose its dominance in the country, with investors testing the waters in ECM (Economic, Financial and Capital Markets).

“The drop in interest rates is still just an expectation and it won't be from 15% to 9%. In the overall return scenario, fixed income remains very attractive,” says Miguel Diaz, head of external issuances at Santander, which ended 2025 in third place in the Dealogic ranking, with a volume of US$ 11.4 billion.

How was 2025?

“2025 was another year of declining revenue for ECM and M&A in the industry,” says Cabral, from Santander. “The expected recovery in ECM did not happen, with the main offering of the year, from Cosan , only occurring in November. We went practically an entire year without major offerings.”

Last year was the fourth consecutive year without IPOs in the country, while there were ten follow-on offerings, compared to nine in 2024, but with different volumes – R$ 15 billion versus R$ 25 billion, considering the effect of the privatization of Sabesp .

ECM's weakness was so great that Dealogic was unable to compile data specific to Brazil. The consolidated figures for Latin America resulted in a ranking of five institutions, with a total volume of US$8.8 billion, up from US$4.7 billion the previous year.

BTG Pactual and Itaú BBA secured their places in the ranking. BTG came in second place, with US$1.5 billion in transactions, while BBA came in fifth, with US$1 billion. JP Morgan led the way, with US$3.8 billion.

At a time of few transactions, Nazari, from BTG Pactual, states that the bank managed to capitalize on the work of strengthening the franchise, retaining key bankers and relationships with clients.

According to him, this allowed them to be present for the first time in all deals with prospects and in almost 90% of those carried out in Latin America, working even with new clients. "We started to see the goodwill created during this downturn pay off," says Nazari.

At Itaú BBA, the ECM area circumvented the situation by diversifying revenues, acting in operations such as block trades, the largest of which was R$ 1 billion in Vivo shares in May, and in public takeover bids (OPAs) , without changing the team.

“It ended up being a positive year, but it was a fraction of what it used to be,” says Greenlees of Itaú BBA. “With the fees from the takeover bids and blocks, and with the few transactions recorded, we managed to have a good year.”

In the case of M&As, the survey indicated a 2% drop in transaction volume for the top ten banks, to US$76.7 billion. Brito, from UBS BB, whose bank ranked fourth with US$5.8 billion, states that the lack of activity in ECM limited the potential of M&As.

“When the IPO market is closed and there is less volume in ECM, this affects M&As. Fewer companies are raising capital, which means lower valuations and fewer mergers and acquisitions,” he says.

Just as in ECM, M&As were hampered by volatility and the local macroeconomic scenario, which reduce conviction in closing transactions, according to Alessandro Farkuh, partner and head of M&As at BTG Pactual. The ranking indicates that the bank's volume reached US$17.8 billion, a 16% increase, placing it in first place.

“The closing dynamics change because valuation benchmarks become distorted. The execution process is lengthened, requiring a more creative and structured approach,” says Farkuh. “In a scenario like this, deals with attractive valuations are prioritized.”

Fixed-income operations, which have been dominating the market and helping to cushion the fall in revenues, declined 9.7% to US$85.4 billion, according to Dealogic. Itaú BBA led in volume, with US$19.4 billion, a drop of 12.3%.

Brito, from UBS BB, points out that the survey does not fully reflect the evolution of DCM, especially local debt, which has grown strongly in recent years, with incentivized debentures and other instruments. The market went from approximately R$ 300 billion in issuances in 2021 to R$ 600 billion in 2024 and is expected to close 2025 at R$ 550 billion.

“When we look at the revenue of IBs, the industry went from R$ 3.5 billion in ECM in 2021 to around R$ 250 million in 2025. But when local equity is closed, companies continue to do capex and refinance debt. We saw very strong growth in local debt,” says Brito.