In the wholesale market, it's now the large regional chains that are pushing the "cart" (referring to the large, regional retail chains) that are doing the driving force.

Atacadão and Assaí have led the changes in the Brazilian cash & carry market in recent years. From expansion, previously more restricted to peripheral areas, to large urban centers, to adaptations in stores, which have increasingly become the destination for consumers as well.

Despite this prominence, the duo is, of course, not alone in this space. And, in 2025, the Brazilian wholesale market opened up space for other players to also assume part of this leading role: the large regional companies.

In short, this is the theme of a new and extensive report from Itaú BBA on the sector, in which the bank uses several indicators from last year to outline the sector's prospects. Starting with what it calls a drastic slowdown in store expansions during the period.

The survey mapped 2,237 stores from 138 players – compared to 147 a year earlier – with 114 net openings in 2025 (about 10 per month), equivalent to a 31% reduction compared to 2024 – a year in which this slowdown had been around 15%.

“This represents a clear drop compared to the rate of approximately 22 net openings per month observed between 2021 and 2023, and reinforces the message that the format is definitely entering a more mature phase,” writes Itaú BBA.

The bank adds a few ingredients to this equation. Among them is the expectation of a low-growth total addressable market, where the marginal return on invested capital will be increasingly dictated by the intensity of competition, making it essential to monitor other players.

In this context, analysts at Itaú BBA highlight that the slowdown in expansions observed in 2025 was driven precisely by companies like Assaí and Atacadão, which put the brakes on due to priorities such as reducing their leverage.

According to the investment bank, this scenario was further reinforced by several regional players undergoing restructuring, such as the Ricoy Group, which contributed to this figure through store closures and sales.

“Conversely, the main regional networks (the subgroup of the 4th to 10th largest companies) maintained their pace, continuing to consolidate their leadership in their main states, and the smaller regional networks also remained active,” the analysts note.

The group included in this Top 10 involves names like Mart Minas, Muffato, Koch, and Grupo Pereira . In addition to this select group, one of the names that accelerated was Atakarejo , a chain from Patria Investimentos , which opened nine stores in Bahia last year, reaching a total of 46 units.

In this expansion map, the Northeast and South regions stood out, accounting for 63% of total net openings in 2025. In the Northeast, Bahia was the main market, with 44% of openings. In the South, this position was held by Santa Catarina, with an index of 63% of openings in the region.

"Meanwhile, São Paulo reinforced its status as the most mature battleground: it showed modest net growth, but a sharp increase in the number of closures, which caught our attention as a possible early sign of higher turnover and faster consolidation in the future, should the pattern persist," the bank highlighted.

Itaú also highlighted that cities with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants have once again become a focus, accounting for 36% of new store openings – excluding Assaí and Atacadão, after a pause in 2024. And that this is a structural change, given that growth opportunities in large urban centers continue to diminish.

"With the 25 largest companies already present in all cities with over 500,000 inhabitants and the white space in medium-sized cities shrinking, smaller cities increasingly represent the next frontier," the analysts write.

On another front, the report points out that there has been an acceleration in consolidation, with the participation of the 25 largest networks growing by 1.5 percentage points in the year, to 77%. And here, again, those who led the way were some "regional champions," who climbed significantly in the ranking.

"In short, the 'expansion story' is increasingly becoming a story of regional leaders consolidating strategic markets, rather than broad national expansion," says another excerpt from the report.

Given these changes, Itaú BBA emphasizes that Assaí is the most exposed to competition, given its concentration in the sector's main markets, such as São Paulo. However, it notes that there is a slowdown in the net number of rival stores within a 10-kilometer radius of the chain.

“That said, the marginal competitive landscape appears less negative,” analysts say. “The sheer number of openings only tells part of the story: it reflects rivals’ willingness to open near Assaí, but doesn’t account for closures,” the analysts state.

As for the other publicly traded player in the sector, Grupo Mateus , from the Northeast, Itaú BBA believes that competition remains relatively more moderate, due to the network's focus on smaller cities and the diversification of its presence.

Shares of Grupo Mateus were down 1.14% on the B3 stock exchange around 12:55 PM, giving the chain a market value of R$ 11.9 billion. Meanwhile, shares of Assaí were down 1.59% at the same time. The group is valued at R$ 10.8 billion.