The ongoing discussion surrounding the end of the 6x1 work schedule (six days of work followed by one day of rest), which has been the subject of debate in the National Congress, is expected to put pressure on the costs of major listed companies in the healthcare sector, such as Rede D'Or, Hapvida, Fleury, and Dasa.
According to BTG Pactual, the outlook is that, if the change in the labor regime is confirmed, reducing the current 44-hour work week to 40 hours, companies will experience an average negative impact of 3.1% on EBITDA.
The issue lies in the fact that approximately 40% of operational teams in healthcare companies currently work extended hours, primarily due to the need for 24-hour operation of hospital units.
"When estimating the number of employees currently working under the 6x1 regime (44-hour work week) and assuming a possible reduction to the 40-hour week limit, companies would need to hire additional staff (around 10%) to keep workloads relatively stable, since any change would not allow for a salary reduction," says the bank's document.
Currently, there are three main paths, in the form of proposed amendments to the Constitution (PECs), related to reducing the working day in Brazil.
The main one, and the one that BTG believes will move forward, is precisely the one that reduces the work week to 40 hours, followed by a phased reduction over four years, until it reaches 36 hours. A key proposal of the Lula government, it is ready to go to the plenary session.
Another proposal recently presented envisions the implementation of the 4x3 model, resulting in a 36-hour work week, with no transition period. The third initiative proposes a gradual reduction over ten years.
“The federal government recently made public statements signaling support for changes to the 6x1 work regime. As it is an election year, the debate surrounding possible new labor legislation may gain greater visibility and become more prominent on the political agenda,” states the report, signed by analysts Samuel Alves and Maria Resende.
Given the financial impact resulting from the need to hire more labor, the bank believes the increased cost will likely be passed on to the end consumer.
In any case, there is an expectation within the sector that the government will take some compensatory measure to mitigate some of this extra expenditure.
"Eventual approval may be accompanied by compensatory measures, such as tax exemptions, payroll tax relief, or other benefits. Part of the impact could also be passed on to prices," says BTG.
According to data presented in the report, Rede D'Or is the company that will hire the most employees, taking into account the approval of the most advanced measure of the labor reform in the National Congress.
Today, the Moll family group has around 24,000 employees working a 44-hour week. And, with the change, it will need an additional 2,200 employees.
With 21,600 employees working at this pace, the Hapvida group will have to add another 1,900 workers to its workforce. Similarly, Dasa, which currently has 14,500 employees working a 44-hour week, will have to hire another 1,300.
Therefore, the additional personnel cost for Rede D'Or should reach R$ 214 million per year. For Hapvida, the amount reaches R$ 107 million, while Dasa will have to disburse another R$ 85 million. For Fleury, the extra cost could reach R$ 63 million.
In this sense, according to the bank's analysts, the company that loses the least from the possible changes in labor legislation, among the main players in the sector, is Rede D'Or.
"If approved, the work schedule reform would likely affect all players and would not materially alter Rede D'Or's competitive positioning," analysts say.
"Within the healthcare sector, the company remains our top pick, supported by strong hospital growth prospects, improved profitability across different segments, and multiple catalysts," states the BTG report.
Valued at R$ 99.1 billion, Rede D'Or has accumulated a 51.3% increase in value over 12 months on the B3 stock exchange. Hapvida is currently worth R$ 5.1 billion (a 67.7% decrease over 12 months). Fleury has a market value of R$ 9.6 billion (a 54% increase on the same basis). Dasa's market capitalization is R$ 5.2 billion (a 147% increase over 12 months).
