The year 2026 began with the protectionist strategy in global trade introduced in 2025 by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, being replicated since Thursday, January 1st, by two countries – Mexico and China – that had previously criticized it harshly.
The import restrictions announced by the Mexican and Chinese governments, under the same claim as Trump that they need to protect domestic industry, have different scopes in terms of products and nations affected by the surcharges.
Even so, the tariff hike announced by both countries directly affects Brazil. According to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), 15% of the country's exports of various products to Mexico could be affected by the new tariffs, with rates ranging from 5% to 55%.
Regarding Chinese restrictions – limited to beef imports – the impact is estimated at up to US$3 billion (or approximately R$16.5 billion) in revenue for the country in 2026, according to estimates from Abiec (Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries) and CNA (Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock).
Daniela Poli Vlavianos, from the law firm Arman Advocacia and a specialist in international trade, says that the initiatives of the Mexican and Chinese governments reveal a clear legal and political contradiction in the multilateral trading system.
“The central issue is that the rhetoric critical of US protectionism doesn’t hold up when the critics themselves adopt policies of the same nature, only under a different geopolitical or situational justification,” Vlavianos tells NeoFeed .
"From a legal and institutional standpoint, this practice weakens the multilateral trading system, encourages cross-retaliation, and undermines legal certainty in international relations, as it sends the message that rules are relativized according to the convenience of the moment," he adds.
China's decision to adopt safeguards against beef imports from several countries, announced at the turn of the year, was justified as a way to protect the domestic industry.
Following an investigation into the markets for fresh, frozen, bone-in and boneless beef, the government concluded that prices have been trending downwards in recent years, due to oversupply and lack of demand.
The chosen method of imposing surcharges on exporting countries was to establish import quotas per country for a period of three years, until December 31, 2028. In addition to Brazil, the measure affects other countries such as the USA, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia. Up to a certain volume, the original 12% tariff remains in effect. Volumes exceeding this quota will be subject to a 55% surcharge.
In the case of Brazil, the quota will be 1.106 million tons in 2026. As Chinese imports of Brazilian beef are expected to reach 1.7 million tons this year, almost 600,000 tons of exports would be subject to the extra 67% tariff (the initial 12% plus the 55% surcharge) starting in July, when shipments that fill the initial Brazilian export quota without surcharge are expected to end.
China accounts for 52% of Brazil's meat exports. Brazil, in turn, is the main source of meat imports in the Chinese market.
Impact
Shares of meatpacking companies led the declines on the Brazilian stock exchange on Friday, January 2nd, the first trading day after China established limits on beef imports. Minerva shares fell by more than 6% in the mid-afternoon, while MBRF shares lost 5%. JBS shares also registered a drop on the NYSE, the US stock exchange, falling by almost 2%.
According to the Brazilian Association of Meat Processing Plants, the sector's revenue from exports to China should reach approximately US$9 billion in 2025 (December data is still pending). "The effects could extend throughout the entire production chain, impacting income generation, employment, and investments in the agricultural sector," the association said in a statement.
In a joint statement, Abiec and CNA argue that the adoption of safeguard measures by the Chinese government on beef imports "imposes a need to reorganize production and export flows."
The Brazilian government says it has been acting in a coordinated manner with the private sector. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) affirms that it will continue working with the Chinese government both bilaterally and within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), with a view to mitigating the impact of the measure and defending the legitimate interests of workers and producers in the sector.
The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro, in turn, assures that the Brazilian government intends to negotiate with the Asian country to continue exporting beef to China without the new 55% tariff. Among the options on the table, one possibility is for Brazil to assume the beef quotas of countries that do not export the product to China or do not meet the total allowed.
"Given our good relationship, we will propose to the Chinese government that if any country fails to meet its quota, it should transfer it to Brazil, which is ready to fulfill it and guarantee the arrival of high-quality meat at competitive prices and without excess tariffs to the Asian country," said Fávaro, citing the US as an example of a country that has not reached its minimum export quota of the product to China.
The surcharge comes at a time when global beef production is expected to fall by 400,000 tons in 2026 – which could help Brazil seek other partners to absorb the surplus of the quota stipulated by China, although this is considered a difficult task.
The expectation is that the beef futures market on the B3 will open trading next Monday, January 5th, with a decline.
Mexican tariff increase
The Mexican tariff package was decided last month when the country's National Congress approved the Strategic Industries Protection Program, included in the 2026 federal budget.
Officially, the Mexican government's objective is to protect 325,000 threatened jobs in 19 strategic industrial sectors, replace imports, and reduce Mexico's growing trade deficit with target countries, especially China.
The tariff increases affect 1,463 imported product items from countries with which the Latin American nation does not have a trade agreement, including China, Russia, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil. The list includes electric vehicles, auto parts, cosmetics, plastics, steel, cardboard, acetate, textiles, footwear, toys, furniture, appliances, glass, soaps, and other items. The tariff rates have not yet been specified.
In a statement released earlier this week, the Mexican Ministry of Economy stated that the measure "is not aimed at any particular country"—in an attempt to avoid comparisons with the tariff policy enacted in April by the American president.
But in practice, the protectionist measure represents a reversal of 40 years of unilateral trade liberalization that transformed Mexico into an exporting powerhouse and an attractive destination for investment, especially in the manufacturing sector.
Analysts see at least three broader objectives behind the Mexican tariff hike. One is to allow Mexico to respond to US pressure to raise its tariffs and join the Trump administration's effort to build a tariff barrier against China.
Another reason would be to strengthen Mexico's position in the negotiations preceding the review, which should take place by July, of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – which covers more than 80% of Mexican exports and represents annual revenues exceeding US$500 billion for the Latin American country. The third reason is to meet the aforementioned domestic policy objectives, including the promotion of national production and innovation.
The impact of the Mexican tariff increase will be substantial for the Chinese automotive industry. Cars and auto parts accounted for 13.6% and 14% of China's exports to Mexico in 2024, respectively.
Tariffs on Chinese cars will increase by up to 50%, compared to the current range of 15% to 20%. For auto parts, the increase will be between 10% and 50%, compared to the current range of 0% to 35%.
In the case of Brazil, the increase in Mexican tariffs could have an impact of US$1.7 billion, relating to 232 products from Brazilian industry, according to an initial assessment by the CNI (National Confederation of Industry). Mexico was the sixth largest destination for Brazilian exports until November 2025, with a total of US$7.1 billion in shipments.
According to expert Daniela Poli Vlavianos, the repetition of this protectionist model by Mexico and China demonstrates that the problem was not only who adopted the tariffs, but what they represent.
"Ultimately, this leads to a deliberate departure from the cooperative logic of international trade and an instrumentalization of economic law as a tool for political dispute, with direct impacts on global supply chains, consumer costs, and contractual predictability," he says.
