The transition to the second quarter, followed by Good Friday, April 3rd, which precedes Easter Sunday, marks the rapid advancement of the 2026 calendar, packed with nine national holidays celebrated on weekdays this year, with a positive impact on tourism, commerce, and services, and a negative impact on production.
Analysts expect there will be a balance between sectors without harming activity in the short term, which is recovering, as attested by the Central Bank in the Copom minutes , confirming the assessment of banks and consultancies that see a reaction in the economy in the first quarter practically concluded, but a slowdown for the year. A trajectory also recognized by the Central Bank.
For the market, more than just a "pass" to a long weekend, Good Friday is a warning sign because it marks the beginning of a succession of long holidays that temporarily "disconnect" the country from the main stock and futures exchanges in the world, especially New York, a benchmark for local operations, where heavy foreign activity prevails – in stocks and interest rates.
Beyond the mismatch in timelines between domestic and international transactions, long weekends require attention in the current scenario of geopolitical pressure and the Lula government's activism in an attempt to reverse its loss of popularity.
The conflict in the Middle East has not yet ceased, and the Brazilian government will not hesitate to announce measures that at least curb the decline in the president's popularity, as reflected in the most recent opinion polls. Containing Brazilian debt is the current priority, but flirting with price controls or limiting interest rates is a mistake.
Lula has in his favor, however, the revenue boost that the higher oil price will provide to the Treasury's coffers. The Ministry of Finance estimates additional revenue of almost R$ 17 billion this year, considering the Brent barrel at US$ 73.09 – the average price that the Ministry has started to consider for this year. This "surplus" of resources should guarantee compliance with the fiscal target and expand the space for expenses.
Regarding the war, Donald Trump, who initially announced a five-day truce in US combat against Iran's energy infrastructure – a deadline that would expire this Friday, the 27th – extended it to 10 days on Thursday, the 26th. This respite and the submission of a peace proposal, mediated by Pakistan, stabilized oil prices. However, the price per barrel still exceeds US$100, and uncertainty prevails because Iran and Israel have not halted their attacks.
Therefore, the risk of more serious impacts on asset and commodity pricing in general has not dissipated. Furthermore, threats to global inflation persist, already putting the world's largest central banks on alert. This includes the Central Bank of Brazil, which began its interest rate cutting cycle on the 18th, without guaranteeing its continuation, which will depend primarily on the external scenario and its effects on domestic inflation.
War and foreigners in the stock market
If central banks decide to adjust monetary policy to the most pessimistic scenario with higher inflation, the adjustments may not be small, according to the World Ranking of Real Interest Rates, compiled almost two decades ago by Jason Vieira, chief economist at Lev Intelligence and the consulting firm MoneYou.
The average nominal interest rate for the ranking of 40 countries is 5.30% per year. Discounting the respective projected inflation rates 12 months ahead, the average real interest rate for the same group is 2.18%. Brazil pays almost three times more in nominal interest, at 14.75% Selic – occupying fourth place after Turkey with 37%, Argentina with 29%, and Russia with 15.50%.
In the ranking based on real interest rates, Brazil is in an even more favorable position. It ended the first quarter in second place, with 9.51%, surpassed only by Turkey with 10.38%. Among the 40 economies, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Taiwan, Austria, and New Zealand are still operating with negative real interest rates.
Brazil therefore maintains a huge advantage over the vast majority of nations in terms of capital returns and attracts foreign investors interested in interest rate differentials – in practice, a springboard for diving into the stock market . But it is a fact that the international environment weighs heavily on decisions.
Partial data from March, up to the 20th, reveals that the inflow of foreign capital for trading in shares listed on the B3 has been slowing down in recent weeks, coinciding with the conflict in the Middle East. In January, foreign investors injected R$ 26.5 billion into this segment; in February, R$ 16 billion; and in March, up to the 20th, R$ 5.3 billion.
In the first quarter, the reading, therefore partial, indicates an inflow of R$ 47.53 billion – the largest volume for the same period since 2022, when R$ 69.06 billion was deposited into B3, reports Einar Rivero, CEO of Elos Ayta Consultoria.
The Ibovespa's performance is indicative of the strong activity of foreign investors. Year-to-date, through March 25th, the index has accumulated gains exceeding 15%, contrasting with negative variations in the main international markets.
The stock market and interest rates have undeniable appeal, but more encouraging prospects for the economy, which incentivize productive investments and not just smart money – which is notably volatile – are needed.
In this sense, the economic agenda for the turn of March to April includes the release of two particularly relevant confidence indicators monitored by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of FGV, which will close the first quarter. The Economic Uncertainty Indicator and the Business Confidence Index – both for March – are scheduled for publication on March 31 and April 1, respectively.
However, to assess the impact of geopolitical tension on these two surveys, IBRE FGV conducted a preliminary reading up to March 13th. The preview shows an increase in uncertainty of 3.6 percentage points compared to February and a drop in business confidence of 0.4 points, driven exclusively by worsening expectations.
