Free from the tariff increases imposed by US President Donald Trump, aircraft manufacturer Embraer recorded a record volume in its order backlog for the second quarter, with US$34.5 billion, a 16% increase over the same period of the previous year.
The standout sector was defense, which showed the most significant growth. During this period, the unit reached a backlog of US$6.1 billion, compared to US$4.4 billion in the first quarter.
The market reacted optimistically to the company's order volume between April and June of this year. Around 12:30 PM, Embraer's shares on the B3 stock exchange were showing a 3.5% increase.
According to analysts at Citi, XP, and BTG Pactual, the highlight of the quarter was the confirmation of an order for 10 KC-390 aircraft for the United Arab Emirates, with an average price of US$170 million per plane. All three banks reiterate their buy recommendation for EMBJ3 stock.
In the banks' view, this level of confirmed sales will contribute to the company's increased profitability, as the expectation is that the strong pace of order confirmations will be maintained in the third quarter.
“Overall, the disclosure of this backlog was important because it demonstrated the strong level of pricing embedded in the large UAE contract for the KC-390, which we consider an important positive driver for the growth story of the Defense division in the medium term,” says the BTG report, signed by Lucas Marquiori, Fernanda Recchia and Samuel Alkmin.
According to Citi, the unit selling price of the aircraft to the Middle Eastern country shows that the Brazilian company still has a large growth corridor in the military air transport segment.
“This value represents a record commercial milestone for the platform. In our opinion, the order reinforces the growing international acceptance of the KC-390 and highlights Embraer's increasing pricing power, as the aircraft continues to gain relevance in the global tactical air transport market,” state André Mazini, Kiepher Kennedy and Piero Trotta, from Citi.
The bank also sees a strong second half of the year, especially after last week's announcement of a new order for 28 commercial aircraft, which will only be reflected in the third quarter's balance sheet.
“We estimate that the contract could add approximately US$1.2 billion to the Commercial Aviation order backlog, representing an increase of approximately 8% compared to the US$15.1 billion reported at the end of the second quarter of 2026,” says Citi.
According to XP, the company's backlog should have a significant impact on revenue over the next four years. For the bank, the numbers are even more significant considering the geopolitical uncertainty, mainly stemming from the war between the United States and Iran, and the volatility of fuel prices, especially aviation kerosene.
Considering this increase and our estimate of US$236 million for defense revenues in Q2 2026, the contract implies a value of US$180–190 million per aircraft, reinforcing the growing international traction and competitive positioning of the KC-390, in addition to suggesting a solid level of profitability for these orders,” say Lucas Laghi, Fernanda Urbano and Guilherme Nippes, from XP.
In the commercial aviation division, the backlog remained virtually stable during the period, at US$15.1 billion, compared to US$15 billion in the first quarter of the year. The main factor was the order for 15 E2 aircraft placed by the American company Azorra.
In business aviation, new orders totaled US$7.8 billion, US$200 million above the backlog recorded between January and March 2026. The services and support sector grew 8%, reaching US$5.5 billion.
But it wasn't just in the number of orders received that Embraer positively surprised the financial market. The volume of aircraft deliveries during the period was also above average for the quarter.
“We also highlight the continued progress in equalizing production, with deliveries in the first half of 2026 already reaching 42% of the midpoint of the projection for the entire year, compared to Embraer's historical average of 34%, reducing the traditionally concentrated profile at the end of the year,” says Citi.
In the second quarter of the year, Embraer delivered 65 aircraft, divided between 20 commercial planes and 45 executive jets.
"The second-quarter backlog does not yet incorporate the strong wave of more than 50 aircraft orders announced during the Farnborough Airshow [event held at the English airport] last week, which opens up space for an even more robust backlog in the third quarter, especially driven by Commercial Aviation," says BTG.
In the accumulated figures for 2026, EMBJ3 shares have registered a 4% drop. However, over 12 months, the scenario is one of 28.2% appreciation. Embraer has a market value of R$ 63.1 billion.
