In a Brazil that is growing far from the stock market, Apex Partners is betting on "Brazilian ounces" (referring to large Brazilian assets).

A significant part of the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP), agribusiness has been attracting increasing capital to the country's interior. This is the path chosen by Apex Partners to showcase a segment that the financial market has not yet been able to properly understand – and which extends far beyond the Ibovespa (Brazilian stock market index).

In the study "The Renaissance of Brazil," which NeoFeed had first-hand access to, the Espírito Santo-based financial group, which manages, advises on, and holds R$ 18.2 billion in assets, argues that the country is entering a new structural growth cycle, driven less by large listed companies and more by regional economies that are advancing away from the spotlight of Brasília and Faria Lima.

"There are two Brazils from an economic point of view. A Brazil of the average and a Brazil of the ounces," says Ricardo Frizera, partner and director of research at Apex Partners.

What Apex calls "Brazilian jaguars" are states sustained by agribusiness, infrastructure, industry, and the expansion of the regional capital market.

The states of Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás are part of this list. Together, these states increased their share of Brazil's GDP from 31% to 36% in the last two decades.

According to the investment and financial services platform, this is precisely where the main distortion of the Brazilian market lies. Today, a large part of the country's economic growth is happening outside of B3: private assets, infrastructure, structured credit, the real estate market, and medium-sized companies little known to the traditional investor.

The Ibovespa index focuses on mature sectors and a small number of companies, while a growing portion of the economy operates outside the main market indicators.

“People in the financial market don’t look much beyond the index. When we think about these ounces, we understand the size of the opportunity for the whole of Brazil,” says Betina Roxo, chief strategist at Apex Partners.

The study argues that the country is undergoing a silent transformation, marked by the internalization of credit and the expansion of the capital market as a financier of the real economy.

The change is evident in different sectors. The share of capital markets in real estate funding, for example, jumped from 16% in 2020 to 41% in 2024, while savings fell from 53% to 32% during the same period. In infrastructure, private capital accounted for 84% of investments in 2025, compared to 56% in 2010.

According to Apex, these are examples of how a growing portion of Brazilian growth has ceased to depend exclusively on the state or large publicly traded companies. And this is something that is gaining strength especially in regions linked to agribusiness.

The study shows that the "jaguar" states have grown above the national average over the past two decades and, in some years, have even grown at a rate close to or higher than that of major global economies.

"Agribusiness is the only economic sector in Brazil where productivity is consistently increasing," says Frizera, citing robusta coffee as an example.

A rustic coffee variety, ideal for hot regions and low altitudes, with Espírito Santo as the national leader, has increased its productivity by more than 130% in less than a decade.

This growth ultimately benefits other regional sectors, such as the real estate market, logistics, services, and consumption.

Brazil in geopolitics

At the same time, the study attempts to place Brazil within a broader geopolitical discussion. In a more fragmented world, pressured by trade disputes, energy security, and the reorganization of global supply chains, the country emerges as a strategic supplier of food, oil, critical minerals, and renewable energy.

The report highlights that Brazil represents about 2% of the global GDP, but has the capacity to feed approximately 11% of the world's population.

Despite this scenario, Apex argues that Brazilian assets remain cheap. The Ibovespa is trading at around 9.3 times projected earnings, a significant discount compared to emerging markets and global stock exchanges.

But this recent influx of foreign investment is still far from representing a “structural rediscovery” of Brazil. “Today, foreigners aren’t concerned with that. It’s purely a technical rotation,” says Roxo.

According to her, international investors are being attracted mainly by the country's high real interest rates and the discounted valuation of the stock market.

Although Apex sees potential for structural rerating of Brazil, the current flow still seems much more tactical than a definitive bet on the country.