Brazil already has the capital for the green economy (but the "match" between projects and investors is lacking).

From discourse to practice, the capital available for the green economy – from climate investments to nature-based solutions (NbS) – is beginning to gain traction in Brazil. So are the projects capable of receiving these resources. This is what a survey by Capital for Climate and Deloitte indicates.

According to the study, which surveyed 34 capital allocators, the projected investment in these areas in the country is at least US$10.4 billion by 2027, more than double the initial projection of US$5 billion. And, on the other hand, considering 32 initiatives, there is already an absorption capacity of US$6 billion.

Another internal report from Capital for Climate reinforces this heated trend. Eight of the 34 participants in this survey stated that, in 2025 alone, they will invest US$1.5 billion in these areas in the country.

Despite the progress highlighted in these examples, there is still a long way to go before this promising pipeline translates into reality. And the main challenge is precisely to make the perfect "match" between each of the actors in this scenario.

“Not all capital is the same, and not all projects are the same. Anyone seeking a return of X within a timeframe of Y needs to find a project with those characteristics,” says Anna Lúcia Horta, executive director of Capital for Climate in Brazil, to NeoFeed .

"So, we have to put the right capital into the right initiative. And at the right time," he adds.

Horta notes that, in addition to understanding the specific needs at each end – from the desired return to the minimum, average, and maximum ticket sizes required for each project – this connection goes through filters such as the solution and maturity of each initiative.

With regard to maturity, another challenge, especially in less developed areas such as NbSs, is dealing with the still nascent supply of specific insurance and guarantee instruments that can mitigate risks, attract investors, and unlock project financing.

“I draw an analogy with the infrastructure sector, where I invest money, the return is long-term, but the risks are known and the mitigation instruments have already been developed,” says Horta. “Here, we have to do both things at the same time.”

Marina Cançado, founder of Converge Capital , an impact investment management firm, highlights recent advancements such as Eco Invest, a federal program that offers subsidized resources and helps reduce the risks of volatility and exchange rate impacts. However, she warns that more is needed.

“All these solutions will require new regulations and a reorganization of supply chains,” he says. “Many pieces need to fall into place for these areas to become relevant sectors of the economy and not just a series of isolated projects.”

Cançado also emphasizes that developing specific risk reduction alternatives is fundamental to attracting foreign resources, capital that, in many cases, is already more mature in these areas. But he highlights the role that Brazilian investors can play.

“What’s most urgently needed is catalytic capital, capital willing to take on more risk,” he says. “And this can come from families who have built businesses but are also investors. It’s the vision of taking 1% or 2% of their portfolio and investing in supply chains that will be the future of Brazil. We need this freer and more flexible capital.”

Horta reinforces this sentiment, adding that there is inequality in the allocation of resources at various stages of project development. "The capital that is most lacking is the venture capital needed, especially in the initial phase, to implement the projects," he says. "That's one of the bottlenecks."

These and other topics will be discussed this week at Brazil Climate Invest Week, organized by Converge Capital and Capital for Climate, in São Paulo. The event will also include a specific program to connect investors and project developers.

To deepen this relationship and make this match, the agenda in question will involve four days of field visits to initiatives related to Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in different Brazilian biomes.

Inevitable

While the evolution of capital available for impact areas has been marked by a mismatch between investors and project developers, global investments in these areas also show disparities in resource allocation, despite improvements in funding levels.

Data from the Climate Policy Initiative shows that investments in climate solutions worldwide have tripled in the last three years, reaching US$2 trillion. Of this, 60% already originates from private capital.

Latin America's share of this pie is still small – around US$200 billion. But the pair understands that, amidst the current geopolitical landscape, there is an opportunity for the region, and Brazil in particular, to increase its relevance on this map. Even in the face of so many challenges.

“Countries are realizing that they increasingly need to diversify, from their energy matrix to their trading partners,” says Cançado. “And this opens a window for the region, which has resources to supply all sectors, from critical minerals to food, in a more sustainable way.”

Horta highlights some of Brazil's various competitive advantages, especially in the area of nature-based solutions (NbS). One of them is the tropical climate, which favors projects with higher carbon absorption. Another field is agribusiness, a sector that can play a significant role in regenerative initiatives.

“I am fully convinced that Brazil will be the world leader in SbNs, just as China is in solar energy. It’s inevitable,” he says. “The issue is timing. The planet cannot wait the 20 years it waited for solar energy to become what it is today. We need to accelerate this inevitable movement.”

In this balance between the short and long term, Cançado emphasizes that most of the choices Brazil needs to make now, urgently, will define the next 50 years. One of these discussions involves the issue of critical minerals .

“We have a gigantic opportunity, because only 30% of our territory has been mapped, and even so, we are among the top five countries with the potential to produce several of these minerals,” he says. “And Brazil already has much more sustainable mining practices compared to the rest of the world.”

Conversely, she highlights some essential steps along this path. Starting with the need for a minimum knowledge base for public debate on this topic. And, from there, creating consensus on how the country can integrate itself into this global chain.

“There is a whole national strategy to be developed. Will Brazil refine its ore or will it sell it like Vale sells pure ore?” he asks. “One risk is that these decisions will be made in a congress completely detached from these discussions, or where lobbies predominate, and there is no thought given to what is actually best for the country.”