Stone's financial results for the first quarter of 2026 were not well received by the financial market. Citi downgraded its recommendation for the institution's shares from buy to neutral and reduced its target price from US$18 to US$11.
In its financial report, the company stated total revenue of R$ 3.57 billion for the period, a 6.5% increase compared to the same period of the previous year and a 4% decrease compared to the fourth quarter.
According to Stone, the increase was driven by the greater contribution of the credit product. The decrease compared to the previous quarter is related to weaker growth in total processed volume (TPV).
“Given the fragility of revenue drivers, uncertainties regarding asset quality, which could lead to higher provisions, and persistently high interest rates, we are reducing our expectations for STNE,” say analysts Gustavo Schroden, Arnon Shirazi, and Brian Flores.
In the report, Citi points to an uncertain growth outlook and projects a risk of decline in the company's shares on the US stock exchange over the next 90 days.
Between January and March, Stone reported an adjusted net profit of R$ 549.1 million, a 3.5% increase compared to the result of the first quarter of 2025, but a 22.3% decrease compared to the fourth quarter.
“In our opinion, recent trends in the payments sector suggest fragility for the independent merchant acquisition business model, while the expected support from the credit segment may prove more limited than anticipated, given the recent evolution in asset quality,” states the Citi document.
Adjusted gross profit remained relatively stable at R$1.48 billion, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous year, but a significant reduction of 10.5% compared to the previous quarter. The primary factor is that revenue growth was offset by higher provisions for credit losses, higher costs, and increased expenses.
According to Citi, the risk lies precisely in this deterioration of credit. "The loan portfolio accelerated to R$3.2 billion (+123% year-on-year), mainly in weekly credit to merchants, with improvements in yields, although asset quality was the main concern."
The adjusted net margin was 15.3%, down from 15.8% in the first quarter of the previous year, and even further from the result for this line item in the fourth quarter, which was 19%.
“Revenue from transactional activities fell short of our forecast, as the company attributed the result to pricing optimization, which should boost revenue from finance operations. As a result, the commission rate fell to 0.35% — a 14 percentage point reduction year-over-year,” say Citi analysts.
In the results, the adjusted gross margin was 41.6% in the quarter, below the 44.4% reported in the first quarter of 2025 and the 44.6% recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. According to Stone, the line was affected by termination costs related to the reduction in staff, carried out at the end of the quarter.
On the other hand, the company's revenue from financial operations exceeded the bank's forecast by 5%, which was attributed to increased prepayment revenue. Credit revenue, however, represented only 11% of total financial operations.
The customer base is another concern on analysts' radar. Stone closed the first quarter with 4.7 million active customers, a 13.2% increase year-over-year, but a 4.8% decrease compared to the fourth quarter, when it ended with 4.94 million.
According to the institution, the reduction can be explained by the revision of package offerings, based on the decision to charge inactive accounts, focusing on segments with high engagement and greater conversion potential.
On Nasdaq, Stone's shares were down 2% on Friday, May 15th, around noon. The accumulated devaluation by 2026 reaches 35.7%. The company is valued at US$2.3 billion.
