Citi decided to go against the market consensus for the healthcare sector, preferring Hypera shares over RD Saúde , and even adopting a more cautious tone regarding the pharmacy chain.
The team led by analyst Leandro Bastos raised its recommendation for Hypera shares from neutral to buy and its target price from R$26 to R$28. At the same time, the recommendation for RD Saúde was cut from neutral to sell and the target price reduced from R$26 to R$18.
The assessment is that, while Hypera presents good prospects for results this year and an opportunity to profit from the launch of its own semaglutide (GLP-1)-based medications, RD Saúde needs to deal with e-commerce competition and issues related to productivity.
“Our optimistic thesis [for Hypera] is quite straightforward, supported by a combination of greater confidence in the sell-out trajectory, amid tighter working capital conditions; boosts to gross margin stemming from the stronger real (approximately 40% of costs are linked to the dollar ); and improved cash flow fundamentals,” says an excerpt from the report.
Citi analysts highlight that Hypera's performance at the beginning of the year suggests a good result, although caution is still necessary.
According to them, considering that the first quarter accounts for 20% of annual sales, and taking into account the performance seen, with revenue reaching R$ 2 billion, it is possible to project revenue at the end of the year of R$ 10 billion, an amount 9% higher than expected.
Based on these points, Citi analysts raised their projections for net income in 2026 and 2027 by 4% and 5%, respectively, to R$1.9 billion and R$2.1 billion.
They also pointed out that semaglutide could boost Hypera's results this year and next, if the company obtains the necessary regulatory licenses. According to analysts' calculations, considering a conservative scenario with a market share of 2.5% this year and 5% next year, weight-loss drugs could increase projected EBITDA by 3% and 5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
"With the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 7.2 times for 2026 and 6.5 times for 2027 (or 10.1 times and 8.7 times, considering a more conservative scenario), the valuation [of Hypera] seems cheap to us," says an excerpt from the report.
In the case of RD Saúde, which for a long time dominated recommendations for the sector, Citi analysts say there are reasons for concern about the arrival of e-commerce platforms in the sale of medicines, as they displace traffic and increase digital penetration, where margins are lower.
According to them, online sales as a percentage of gross retail sales increased from 11.1% in 2022 to 27.6% in the last 12 months ending in the first quarter, weighing on the operational leverage of companies.
This situation was accompanied by lower same-store sales performance in mature units, whose growth fell below inflation. They also pointed to doubts about whether RD will be able to obtain more gains with LPG-1, considering the strong comparison base.
"Despite consistent revenue growth over the years, including an increase of more than 20% supported by the boom in LPG-1 medications since 2024, the company has failed to dilute operating expenses, hampered by employee performance per store and the implementation of benefits programs," says an excerpt from the report, which also highlights the negative impacts that the six-for-one shift schedule may have on the company.
The situation led Citi analysts to cut their forecasts for RD's profit in 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 6%, respectively, to R$1.5 billion and R$1.8 billion.
At around 1:28 PM, Hypera shares were up 4.30%, at R$ 23.54. RD Saúde shares were up 0.41%, at R$ 19.57.
Hypera is currently valued at R$16.5 billion, with its shares accumulating a 1.95% increase this year. RD Saúde's market cap totals R$34.3 billion, while its shares have fallen 17.4% this year.
