The initial path towards a sixth World Cup title for the Brazilian national team is set. In the World Cup hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, Brazil debuts on June 13th against Morocco, and then faces Haiti and Scotland.
While there is uncertainty about whether Carlo Ancelotti's team will return with the trophy, for Brazilian retail, however, there is already a clear expectation about which sectors will be winners and which will lose ground because of the competition in 2026.
A report by Santander maps out the sectors that will be impacted, in some way, by the football competition. The biggest beneficiaries are expected to be the SBF group (owner of Centauro), Mercado Livre, Casas Bahia, and Magazine Luiza.
On the other hand, the World Cup is expected to affect sales in the fashion retail segment, especially fast fashion companies. In this sense, C&A, Renner, and Guararapes (owner of Riachuelo) may see their results impacted.
"In general, the impact should be negative for the broader retail sector, especially for the fashion segment. We expect the World Cup to have a negative effect on total retail sales in the second and third quarters, mainly in physical retail, due to the reduction in customer traffic on game days," says the Santander document.
According to the bank, retailers of essential goods should be less affected, since demand in these segments is less sensitive to temporary disruptions in supply. In the case of food retail, the trend is for increased demand in categories such as snacks, barbecue meats, and alcoholic beverages.
In the case of Centauro's owner, the expectation is for a strong increase in sales of Brazilian national team jerseys. Analysts project an increase of R$ 390 million in revenue by 2026.
“As in previous World Cups, we expect a significant incremental contribution to revenue (3% in 2022 versus an estimated 4% in 2026). Management has signaled greater preparedness compared to 2022, with plans to order 850,000 national team jerseys,” write Lucas Esteves, Eric Huang, and Vitor Fuziharo, who authored the report.
Mercado Libre should benefit from increased market share in durable goods, especially TVs and home appliances, mainly due to its partnership with Casas Bahia. Sales of appliances could add 2% to gross merchandise volume (GMV) by 2026.
"For Casas Bahia and Magazine Luiza, the event should act as a catalyst for durable goods, similar to an additional Black Friday, equivalent to about an extra month of sales," he says.
Vulcabras can indirectly benefit from the increased exposure of Mizuno soccer cleats, which are increasingly used by top professional players, functioning as direct marketing.
Arcos Dorados, owner of the McDonald's chain in Brazil, expects to maintain traffic and sales following the launch of World Cup-themed products. CVC is also expected to see increased revenue from travel packages to the host countries of the competition.
There are important variables that can reflect the economic impact on Brazilian companies. One of them is the team's own performance, which could involve playing between three (if they are eliminated in the first phase, which is unlikely) and eight matches (if they reach the final).
If Brazil finishes first in its group, 50% of the games would be played on weekends, concentrating the games outside of business hours, which would be positive for retail. However, if it advances in second place, only 37.5% would be on weekends, with a greater concentration on weekdays.
Due to the time difference between Brazil and the countries hosting the tournament, most matches are expected to take place outside of business hours, with games scheduled between 7 pm and 10 pm, which may help limit the potential drop in foot traffic at physical retail stores.
In the last five World Cups, the months of the competition showed, according to an analysis by Santander, weaker annual growth compared to the full-year result, which confirms the interpretation of the negative impact on the overall performance of retail in Brazil.
In the historical analysis, clothing appears as the segment that was most negatively impacted. The pharmaceutical sector also shows underperformance, albeit to a lesser degree. On the other hand, food and electronics experienced a one-off boost in demand.
Until now, the World Cup was held with 32 teams (now there are 48) and lasted a month. Furthermore, the champion will play one more match than in previous tournaments, when it was possible to win the trophy after seven matches.
The 2026 World Cup begins on June 11 and ends on July 19. The final will be held in New Jersey, at MetLife Stadium. In the first phase, Brazil will play in New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Miami.
