Petros is beginning to prepare the ground to expand some of its portfolio's exposures to other asset classes. And investing abroad, which is still very small in the portfolio of the second largest closed-end supplementary pension entity in the country, is one of the objectives.
Currently, the Petrobras employees' pension fund, which manages over R$153 billion and includes approximately 133,000 participants, does not have this type of asset in its mature plans. In the younger plans, the consolidated allocation is less than 0.5%.
The decision not to increase this share earlier ended up benefiting the foundation, given the appreciation of the real in 2025 and also in 2026. But, with the more depreciated exchange rate, Petros feels more comfortable studying an expansion of its international exposure.
Investing abroad makes sense because it's an asset class uncorrelated with local assets. Today, Petros has a global strategy through a BTG Pactual fund and is also evaluating alternatives in global fixed income. Before any allocation, however, managers need to go through a due diligence process.
To invest in international funds, Petros requires, among other criteria, at least 36 months of track record and US$5 billion under management. The analysis considers reputational, qualitative, and quantitative aspects, including track record and fund performance.
“We are not in a 100-meter race. We are in a marathon. When choosing a manager, we are looking at the long term,” says Gustavo Gazaneo, investment director at Petros, on Wealth Point, a NeoFeed program.
The same care applies to local private credit , another asset class on the foundation's radar. After the compression of spreads on high-grade bonds last year, Petros began to see more attractive rates at the beginning of this year. The idea is to increase exposure selectively, both in funds already present in the portfolio and with new managers.
In Brazil, the bar for a fund to be eligible for investment is also high. The manager needs to have at least 36 months of results, R$ 3 billion allocated to the chosen segment, and the strategy must have a minimum of R$ 600 million.
“We like private credit. When we see that the risk-return ratio is worthwhile, we increase it a little, and we are analyzing that now,” says Gazaneo.
However, not all asset classes are on the radar. Private equity , which was part of the foundation's portfolio in the past, is not expected to return, as it is not permitted by the Foundation's current investment policy.
Furthermore, some of the older assets in this class were in mature plans and were liquidated to reinforce the immunization strategy.
The preference now is for more liquid asset classes in youth plans. This also helps explain the gradual reduction in exposure to macro multi-market funds , which have not delivered consistent performance in recent years.
Petros still retains managers it trusts, but the asset class has been losing ground, especially after a difficult March for global markets. Within the structured investment block, the foundation is evaluating alternatives such as long-biased and equity hedges.
“We’ve basically always worked with multi-market funds, but the performance hasn’t been that good. We’re looking at other strategies to compose our portfolio within this universe that we call structured products,” says the investment director of Petros.
In real estate investments, the trend is different. In its mature plans, Petros still owns physical properties inherited from its founding in the 1970s.
The strategy is to sell these assets when the opportunity arises and direct the resources towards immunization. In the youth plans, the focus is on listed real estate funds , which offer liquidity, monthly dividend payments, and potential for capital gains.
The foundation has an internal team dedicated to selecting these funds. In 2025, this asset class yielded over 21% for Petros and contributed to the foundation's record result.
"It's a class we like. We intend to increase it cautiously and always looking for market opportunities," says Gazaneo.
In the variable income market, investment is made through internal and external funds. Internally, there are four strategies: a passive one, based on ETFs ; one focused on selecting managers; one focused on the Ibovespa (Brazilian stock market index); and one focused on real returns.
The use of ETFs has gained importance as a tactical tool. When a foundation redeems funds from a third-party equity fund, for example, it can use ETFs to avoid exiting the stock market immediately. Liquidity allows for quick entry and exit, capturing short-term movements.
The foundation will continue to monitor these asset classes, but the trigger for a stronger allocation shift depends on a fall in real interest rates. According to Gazaneo, a Selic rate below double digits and a real interest rate between 5% and 5.5% could make other asset classes more attractive to foundations.
“If interest rates converge to below double digits, and if we also have a better structure for public debt, institutional investors will take on a bit more risk and move to other asset classes. Just like us,” says Gazaneo.
Deficit in defined benefit plans
In 2025, Petros' consolidated return on investments exceeded R$ 15 billion, the highest mark in the foundation's history. The challenge now is to sustain this performance in a year still marked by high interest rates and global volatility, and also to address the deficit in mature, defined-benefit plans.
In recent years, the foundation has made progress in balancing its portfolios through a strategy of immunizing its assets and liabilities, based primarily on matching assets and liabilities with inflation-indexed federal government bonds. Today, approximately 90% of mature plans are already immunized.
The immunization of older plans began to gain momentum between 2021 and 2022 and helped the foundation deliver three consecutive years of above-target results with less volatility. The target set in the investment policy is to reach between 97% and 98% immunization in the next five years.
The improved profitability, however, does not yet mean an immediate reversal of the deficit in the old plans, the exact value of which is being discussed in a forum of the entity.
"Our studies don't yet indicate that we can reverse this deficit. But, if we consistently maintain this return, the studies will show what we can do to benefit the participant," says the investment director of Petros.
In the younger age groups, where retirement income depends on profitability and contribution amounts, the goal is to achieve consistent returns above the CDI (Brazilian interbank deposit rate).
The main one is Petros-2, the largest variable contribution plan in the country, with over R$ 60 billion under management and 53,000 participants. In 2025, the plan had a return of 15.25%, the highest result since its creation in 2007.
In this plan, fixed income remains relevant, accounting for approximately 78% of the portfolio. Variable income represents almost 12%. Another 7% is in structured investments, mainly multi-market funds, less than 2% in real estate (real estate funds and properties), and 0.2% in investments abroad.
The concentration in fixed income shows that caution remains the watchword for 2026. Before the increase in geopolitical tension, Petros expected a more favorable environment to increase risk appetite, with a sharper drop in interest rates in Brazil and cuts also in the United States. This scenario has changed.
With oil above US$100, higher global inflation, and more resilient US interest rates, the foundation has revised its projections. The assessment is that Brazilian fixed income still offers an attractive risk-return ratio, especially in NTN-Bs (Brazilian Treasury Notes - Series B).
“We believe this is still a year for fixed income, which still has many opportunities, with high rates. In addition, we are in a moment of great volatility and uncertainty, making it difficult to take risks,” says Gazaneo.
