The year 2025 ended with a scenario that few imagined at the beginning: a stronger real, a stock market at record highs, and a reappearing appetite for risk. However, high real interest rates and the expected volatility of the electoral scenario and global geopolitical tensions, such as in Venezuela and Ukraine, still leave portfolios predominantly conservative in 2026.
NeoFeed spoke with the seven largest private banks in Brazil - Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, BTG Pactual, Itaú Unibanco, Santander, UBS and XP - to find out how they are allocating the resources of the very wealthy at the beginning of 2026.
If, last year, the international scenario dictated the pace of the markets, with Trump's tariff hikes, the devaluation of the dollar, and the diversification of investments in various global stock exchanges, including the B3 ( Brazilian stock exchange), this year, local movements should predominate in the pricing of assets.
“The dollar has already undergone a major correction and should become more stable this year. We see no reason for the appreciation of other currencies, such as the euro. The exchange rate here will depend more on expectations regarding fiscal policy in 2027,” says João Scandiuzzi, partner and chief strategist at BTG Pactual Portfolio Solutions.
The main expectation this year is for the start of interest rate cuts in Brazil, which are currently at 15% per year. Banks vary their forecasts for the terminal interest rate in 2026 between 12.75% per year and 12% per year. And, with inflation controlled at around 4%, this means real interest rates of 8% per year or more – still extremely attractive, one of the highest in the world.
Another factor that should influence prices is the presidential election race, which will bring volatility to the markets throughout the year, with opinion polls showing the lead of candidates more or less aligned with fiscal adjustment, which will be postponed until 2027.
“The presidential election should be one of the main drivers of volatility in 2026. Therefore, especially in the second half of the year, it is worth calibrating risk exposure and maintaining diversified and liquid portfolios to weather fluctuations,” says Luciano Telo, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management in Brazil.
The consequence of this scenario is that fixed income continues to have a significant presence in recommendations, comprising 50% to 70% of a client's portfolio with a moderate risk profile.
Therefore, banks prefer bonds linked to the IPCA (Brazilian inflation index) because they offer protection against inflation spikes and yield curve volatility, in addition to being at historically very high levels. IPCA Treasury bonds, for example, are paying rates of almost 8% per year.
For credit allocation, the industry still sees room for tax-exempt assets and private credit, but with a higher level of selectivity and prudence than investors have become accustomed to employing in recent years. In other words: a premium still exists, but it is not homogeneous, and the compression of spreads in some segments forces investors to separate what is complex from what is, in fact, risky.
“Structured credit can gain ground, provided there is a rigorous risk selection process and funds capable of balancing credit with other factors to weather volatility and a repricing of spreads ,” says Julia Lenzi Baulé, chief investment strategist at BB Private. “As interest rates fall, funds positioned to capture the trend also gain relevance.”
From left to right, top to bottom: Artur Wichmann, from XP; Julia Lenzi Baulé, from BB Private; Luciano Telo, from UBS; Nicholas McCarthy, from Itaú; João Scandiuzzi, from BTG; Juliana Laham, from Bradesco; and Christiano Clemente, from Santander.
And the risk?
Fixed income remains the mainstay of the portfolio, but the expected lower interest rates in 2026 suggest that we should start "putting our foot in risk." However, there is no consensus on how to do this among the largest private banks in Brazil.
The stock market emerged as the best performing asset of the year in 2025, with the Ibovespa index rising 34%. Following this appreciation, expectations for a repeat performance are more cautious for some banks, but the suggested average allocation is 10% for a moderate risk profile.
Santander, Bradesco, BTG, and XP have a neutral recommendation for the stock market this year, even though they believe the shares are still significantly discounted.
“We see room for appreciation in the medium term, but with greater caution given the recent rise. In our calculations, the Ibovespa currently has a Price/Earnings ratio of 9, low compared to its historical average of around 12, for example,” says Christiano Clemente, CIO of Santander Private Banking.
BB, Itaú, and UBS are already overallocated in this asset class, maintaining a more constructive position in the stock market, with the caveat that 2026 is unlikely to be a linear story—especially as the election calendar approaches and the market begins to price in scenarios.
“In 2025 it was the best performing asset and in 2026 it will be again. You can't afford to stay out of the stock market, especially with the process of falling interest rates,” says Nicholas McCarthy, director of investment strategy at Itaú Unibanco.
But for all of them, the allocation to the stock market needs to be active and not just focused on the Ibovespa index. It's necessary to select good companies that benefit from falling interest rates and that are genuinely undervalued. The allocation should be either done by good fund managers who will handle this work or through a more careful curation of direct positions in conjunction with the banks' research departments.
A more careful selection is also needed when allocating multi-market funds . While the asset class was less than 1 percentage point above the CDI (Brazilian interbank deposit rate) for the year, not compensating for volatility over time, some funds managed to stand out. In the last 24 months, the ANBIMA Hedge Fund Index is still below the CDI.
“We remain hesitant about the asset class as a whole, as it is difficult for the group to generate sufficient alpha to offset the high management fees. Even so, there is a subgroup of managers of unquestionable quality, capable of delivering consistent returns and building the portfolio over time,” says Artur Wichmann, CIO of XP.
Banks recommend allocating 15% to 20% of your portfolio to this asset class, with a mix of macro funds to capture the volatility of an election year, as well as multi-strategy and long-biased funds to improve the risk-return ratio.
Regarding alternative assets, the suggested average allocation is around 5%. And the preferred asset class for the year is real estate investment trusts (REITs ), which tend to benefit from falling interest rates. In 2025, the IFIX, the REIT index, is projected to have increased by over 20%.
Opportunities around the world
International asset allocation has been gaining increasing importance in the portfolios of private clients. Currently, the general recommendation is to have at least 20% of assets invested abroad structurally.
And this portion of the portfolio will be very important to cushion volatility in the local scenario in 2026 and geopolitical tensions geographically or economically close to Brazil (such as tensions between Venezuela and China with the US), acting as a natural hedge against movements that affect the Brazilian economy.
The thesis of continueddollar devaluation, as in 2025, and the need to diversify among other currencies and reduce allocation in the United States to create a more global portfolio is not a consensus.
Itaú, for example, has a clearer position on geographic rotation, suggesting less investment in the United States and more in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, with an increase in variable income and a reduction in dollar-denominated fixed income.
BB Private and UBS, on the other hand, believe in a still constructive world for global risk assets, with the United States maintaining a central role. This is especially true due to the technology and AI sector and the continued solid growth in their base-case scenario.
“Investors should review their allocations in international equities, seeking to ensure that they are aligned with, or even slightly above, their long-term objectives. For those with low exposure to international equities, it is worth considering increasing it,” says Luciano Telo, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management in Brazil.
On the other hand, there are those who see the same picture, but with a warning about price. Bradesco acknowledges that almost everything went well in the US, and that is precisely why the main concern becomes valuation .
“In the US stock market, we are slightly underallocated relative to developed countries. For the rest, our allocation is neutral. In fixed income, our preference is for lower-risk securities, where we have an allocation above neutral,” says Juliana Laham, Global CIO of Bradesco.
BTG follows the same cautious approach to US credit: it maintains the dollar as its reference currency, but doesn't see much "easy gain" through closing spreads and is leaner towards high yield. At the same time, the firm seeks quality and protection without excessively long-term maturities. One of its main recommendations is five-year US TIPS (Treasury Incentive Plans).
Europe is emerging as a point of convergence more for diversification than for euphoria. The region is gaining ground as an alternative to reduce concentration in the US, but with the understanding that part of the recent performance came from exchange rates, not from a structural repricing of assets.
Still, the combination of moderate interest rate cuts, some fiscal stimulus in developed economies, and a weaker dollar tends to sustain risk appetite in the old continent — even with geopolitics maintaining a warning signal.
Emerging markets are gaining ground in portfolios after a long period of significant underallocation. China appears as an important asset for technology exposure, but requires careful credit management and is expected to experience weaker economic growth.
The message that resonates with everyone, however, is the same: if 2025 showed how global trends can change an entire portfolio, 2026 doesn't seem like a year to be focused, either geographically or on a single thesis.
