Throughout his three terms as President of the Republic, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva became accustomed to making international trips around the world to close deals and expand Brazil's trade agenda with allied countries.
In theory, the objective of the eight-day presidential tour of Asia, which Lula embarked on Tuesday, February 17th, bound forIndia and South Korea , is no different from previous trips.
What changes is the message that the Brazilian leader will send to the United States and China , the two largest trading powers on the planet, antagonistic to each other and directly interested in the main issues that Lula will address on his first stop, India: artificial intelligence and rare earth elements .
With the world immersed in the Trump era, with multilateralism on the decline and US protectionism on the rise, marked by increasing pressure from the White House on allied countries to undermine China's position as the world's largest trading nation – responsible for about 16% of total world exports – the Brazilian president's trip is fraught with pitfalls.
Lula will have to rely on his well-known political skill to navigate this new world order. On the one hand, it is essential to maintain close relations with the President of the United States without neglecting China and, incidentally, to do what is expected of him – to close deals with other countries. In the case of the stopover in South Korea, the goal is to expand the export portfolio of agribusiness.
On the other hand, Lula should take advantage of the meeting with the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi , to reinforce the union of the so-called Global South of emerging countries, while maintaining a prudent distance and independence from the two trading powers.
The significance of this trip can be seen in the size of the presidential delegation, with at least 10 ministers and 315 business leaders, and in Lula's expectation of making progress, especially on the two most sensitive issues to be addressed in India.
In New Delhi, the president will participate on Thursday, February 19th, in the opening of the Artificial Intelligence Impact Summit, with the participation of leaders from more than 20 countries – including French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez – promoted by Modi. In addition to politicians, CEOs of big tech companies such as Google, Nvidia, OpenAI, and others will also participate.
The AI Impact Summit, an annual informal gathering that discusses various aspects of technology development – meaning it doesn't approve binding decisions – has already been held in the United Kingdom (2023), South Korea (2024), and France (2025).
The final declaration is expected to launch a charter for the democratic diffusion of AI, an international AI network for scientific institutions, and a guide for advancing resilient AI infrastructure, among other proposals. Brazil and Japan co-chair the working group on "safe and trustworthy" AI, one of the summit's focuses and a topic dear to the Brazilian president.
Lula is expected to defend the same agenda of demands to big tech companies that he has had since the beginning of his administration, which includes measures to curb abuses of discrimination, manipulation of information, photographs and videos, and deep fakes, which are now receiving special attention from the Brazilian president because of the presidential campaign.
Since the topic is also likely to be part of the bilateral agenda between Lula and Trump, who are expected to meet at the White House in the second half of March, the American government and leaders of big tech companies should closely follow Lula's speech. The Brazilian president's challenge is to establish a position on the issue without leaving any room to contaminate the meeting at the White House.
Rare earths
The second leg of the presidential visit to the Indian capital includes a meeting between Lula and Prime Minister Modi, during which several trade agreements are expected to be signed. However, the main focus for both countries is to forge a partnership to expand their processing capacity for critical minerals and rare earth elements.
This is an extremely sensitive issue, as it involves a dispute between the US and China to secure the supply of these strategic minerals, essential for technologies aimed at the energy transition, of which both Brazil and India are among the countries with the largest reserves.
China, which holds about 70% of the world's reserves and around 90% of its processing capacity, has used these resources as a geopolitical weapon against the tariff policies of the United States, whose high-tech industry depends on these critical minerals for the development of AI and superconductors.
Last week, an envoy from the American government to Brasília, the Assistant Secretary of the Department of Economic, Energy and Trade Affairs, Caleb Orr, stated that the US is willing to create a partnership between the two countries that would include the processing of these minerals in both Brazil and the United States.
This initiative is part of a White House strategy to attract allied countries to a new trade bloc with the goal of establishing minimum prices for strategic minerals and thereby neutralizing Chinese supremacy in this area.
The Brazilian government, however, established three central conditions for accepting the partnership with the US. First, Brazil wants to prioritize the domestic use of these minerals — such as rare earths and lithium — ensuring that only the surplus is exported.
Secondly, it demands negotiation regarding the level of processing that will be carried out in the country, arguing that Brazil should not be restricted to the most basic stages of the production chain. Finally, the government made it clear that it will not accept exclusivity agreements, preserving the right to trade with any country, including China, avoiding alignments that limit its strategic autonomy.
The agreement that Lula will sign with Modi on this issue addresses most of the demands made by the Brazilian government to the White House. Called the Memorandum of Understanding on Critical Minerals and Rare Earths, the document does not establish specific plans, deadlines, or investments, but it does foresee concrete investments in the future, involving public or private companies, including Brazilian exports of strategic minerals and the possibility of the two countries developing a processing partnership.
In 2023, India established a list of 30 essential critical minerals, based on the country's demand in sectors such as defense, agriculture, energy, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, and others. The Indian government has already signed agreements in this sector with at least eight mineral-rich countries, involving technology exchanges and opening up opportunities for Indian industry.
The Indian company Altmin, for example, is expected to announce an investment of approximately R$ 220 million in Companhia Brasileira de Lítio for the exploration of lithium, a critical mineral essential for the energy transition.
In addition to avoiding offending Trump and the Chinese government on AI and strategic metals issues, Lula should use the trip to close deals for Brazilian companies and expand the trade balance.
On the agenda with Modi is a discussion about the Indian Air Force's multi-billion dollar tender to purchase up to 80 medium-sized transport aircraft to renew its fleet. Embraer has partnered with the local company Mahindra for the competition, which also includes Airbus and Kawasaki as potential competitors.
After the Indian leg of the trip, Lula will then travel to South Korea, where he will meet with President Lee Jae-myung and participate in the Brazil-Korea Business Forum.
The Brazilian government intends to use the visit to open new avenues for cooperation, but the main focus is on opening agricultural markets, especially for beef and pork, as well as higher value-added products.
