Historian Niall Ferguson sees the United States and China already immersed in a second Cold War — a dispute with Taiwan as the main point of tension, forcing countries like Brazil to seek an increasingly difficult balance between the two powers.
In an interview with NeoFeed , conducted at Expert XP, Ferguson stated that the country is "doomed to remain in the middle" of this conflict, although its geographical distance from the main areas of instability reduces the risks.
Ferguson also analyzed the Brazilian presidential election, economic dependence on China, and the country's place in the artificial intelligence revolution.
According to him, Brazil is wasting advantages such as cheap energy and critical mineral reserves, while maintaining barriers that hinder the installation of data centers.
In the global technological race, the historian considers the construction of a completely national infrastructure unfeasible and advocates for closer ties with the American AI ecosystem. Check it out:
You state that the United States and China are already engaged in a second Cold War. What could transform this dispute into an open conflict? And how close are we to that point?
George Orwell coined the term "Cold War" in 1945 and defined it as a peace that is not peace. His observation was that nuclear powers cannot wage war in the traditional way because the risks are too high. The result is this peace that is not peace. I think that's more or less where China and the United States are.
Could they end up in open warfare? Perhaps the most obvious place for this conflict to begin is Taiwan. China says Taiwan belongs to China. The United States claims it reserves the right to prevent China from taking control of the island. Therefore, this is the most evident point of tension.
In the first Cold War, the critical point was Cuba, an island close to the United States. The Soviets tried to install missiles there, provoking the worst crisis of that period. In the second Cold War, the worst crisis could happen in Taiwan. This is, in my opinion, the greatest risk for the coming years.
"In the first Cold War, the critical point was Cuba, an island close to the United States. In the second Cold War, the worst crisis could happen in Taiwan."
Countries like Brazil seek to maintain close relations with both the United States and China. In a second Cold War, will this position remain possible, or will the country be pressured to choose a side?
It's very difficult to remain non-aligned during a Cold War. Many countries tried to do this in the first one, like India. And India remains non-aligned in this second Cold War. It's not possible to say that it's an ally of the United States, because that's simply not true. I think Brazil is in a relatively similar position today.
Brazil has such close economic ties with China that maintaining good relations makes sense. On the other hand, it is located in the Western Hemisphere, which the Trump administration considers the United States' backyard. The tension between Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stems, in my view, from this difference: Brazil is economically oriented towards China, but politically it is in the Western Hemisphere.
Is it impossible to maintain this position? I don't think it's impossible, but it's costly. Brazil is subject to significant American tariffs. It would be good if the United States adopted free trade in the Americas, but that seems very unlikely. At the same time, I don't see how Brazil could simply abandon its relationship with China. It's too important. Therefore, Brazil is condemned to remain in the middle and to remain non-aligned.
The good news is that Brazil is far from the conflict zones. It's far from Eastern Europe, the Persian Gulf, and very far from Taiwan. Although it's a politically difficult situation, the risks for Brazil are much lower than for countries like the United Arab Emirates. Right now, I'd rather be in São Paulo than in Dubai.
Brazil will hold a presidential election this year. Could Lula remaining in power or the election of another president change this relationship?
I'm not an expert on Brazilian politics, so I need to be very careful about what I say. My impression, based mainly on conversations with Brazilian friends, is that Lula has a good chance of being re-elected because the Brazilian right is divided and Flávio Bolsonaro is not a very popular candidate. If the right presented another name, the result could be different.
But if things continue as they are and Flávio Bolsonaro is the right-wing candidate, I believe Lula will be re-elected. Would it be better to have a conservative as president of Brazil? In my opinion, yes. In other Latin American countries, the trend is a shift from left to right. This is most evident in Argentina, but we also see this movement in Colombia and elsewhere.
Brazil seems like an exception to the rule. But when we look at Congress, we see that it has shifted to the right. Lula is a kind of exception that puts this rule to the test, partly because he is a very successful and effective politician. But I think the main reason is that the Brazilian right wing is unable to organize itself.
It would be like, in the United States, President Trump saying that his son, Donald Trump Jr., will be the Republican candidate in 2028. He could do it, but it would be a disaster for the Republicans, who would almost certainly lose.
China is Brazil's largest trading partner, while the state continues to play a central role in investment and technology. What is the main strategic risk of this dependence?
I'll give you an example of what Brazil could do differently right now. The country has exceptionally cheap electricity. But where are the data centers being built? Not in Brazil. This happens, in part, because anyone trying to import semiconductors pays a 100% tariff.
Brazil needs to be more creative in how it participates in the artificial intelligence revolution. This revolution isn't going to stop and is transforming the global economy. Brazil doesn't have a strategy for AI, but it could be a protagonist in the expansion of data centers. It's becoming increasingly difficult to find places to build them in the United States. Brazil has cheap energy and, it seems to me, several other advantages. Why isn't it taking advantage of this?
If Brazil were to become a major source of computing power, its relationship with the United States would change. Americans would begin to place greater importance on the country if it were to offer something like that.
Another prominent area is critical minerals and rare earth elements, currently monopolized by the Chinese. Brazil possesses abundant reserves and could become more valuable to the United States by developing these resources. This would also change the relationship between the two countries.
"Brazil doesn't have a strategy for AI, but it could be a key player in the expansion of data centers."
For many years, Brazil was a world apart: protectionist, inward-looking, and closed in on itself. I don't believe that policy is still viable. Brazil needs to open up, participate more in the world, and explore its advantages.
Will leadership in artificial intelligence determine which will be the next dominant global power?
Artificial intelligence is transforming the American and Chinese economies. All other countries are simply trying to choose between the United States model and the Chinese model, because there are practically no other participants in this race, with the possible exception of one or two European companies.
Brazil needs to ask itself what role it intends to play in this world. Will it just stand by and watch? I think that would be risky. Sector after sector will be transformed by this new technology. The financial market will be transformed. We are at a financial sector conference, and in ten years, a huge portion of what we do today with human beings will be done by artificial intelligence.
People need to understand that this is a global revolution, but one that originated in the United States and China. This will create another dilemma for Brazil: adopt the American or the Chinese technological infrastructure?
My recommendation is to follow the American model, because the Chinese path comes with conditions. The Chinese models are loyal to Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. Brazil is a democracy, fundamentally committed to individual freedom and the rule of law, just like the United States. Therefore, the natural move would be to move closer to the Americans, not China, especially when it comes to a technology as important as artificial intelligence.
Could Brazil forge its own path, independent of the United States or China?
The expression people like to use is "digital sovereignty." I hear it a lot in Europe. The problem is that I don't consider it plausible that Brazil—or even Germany—could develop its artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, and chip factories on its own.
This is a complete technological structure, made up of a series of components necessary to operate large language models. A gigantic amount of computational capacity is needed to train them and an even greater amount to perform the inferences.
I think it's too late for Brazil to say it will have its own AI company or its own programming language model, a Brazilian Anthropic or OpenAI. That ship has already sailed, just as it sailed for the UK, Germany, and other European countries.
The question now is what kind of relationship Brazil wants to establish in a world dominated by American and Chinese language models. American models are probably superior, but also more expensive. Chinese models are very accessible, but by adopting them, the country becomes part of China's artificial intelligence empire. And that is a dangerous choice.
