The market received Aegea's annual earnings report with caution, released in the early hours of Saturday, April 11, following a series of delays caused by a comprehensive accounting review of the company's financial statements.
The main changes involved the revenue recognition methodology and the calculation of Expected Credit Losses (PECLD), adopting a more conservative approach to the company's ability to recover receivables.
The new provision model also introduces a loss matrix based on delinquency history, which considers the evolution of the portfolio by delinquency ranges. The longer the maturity period, the lower the probability of recovery. The risk of losses on outstanding loans has also been incorporated, giving greater weight to customers' payment history. And renegotiations that have been overdue for more than 30 days have been written off.
As a result, the provision for Expected Credit Losses (PECLD) now amounts to 105% of overdue credits in the Aegea ecosystem. By the end of 2025, the company had R$ 978 million in overdue accounts, not considering renegotiations. This volume is 65% higher than the revised figures for 2024 and also above the balance of performing credits, which was R$ 850 million.
Under the new methodology, the balance of overdue accounts receivable would be R$ 593.55 million, down from the R$ 729.47 million that the company had reported last year. On the other hand, accounts receivable for the 2024 balance sheet were reduced from R$ 2.48 billion to R$ 1.58 billion.
The company also changed its revenue recognition model, aiming to align results more closely with cash generation. Under the previous model, revenue was recognized after the service was rendered, while outstanding payments were subsequently recorded as credit losses.
In the new methodology, revenue associated with customers who have balances overdue by more than six months or who have incomplete or outdated registration information will only be recognized after the payment has been effectively made.
In consolidated terms, the revised pro forma net revenue for 2024 was R$ 15.16 billion, approximately R$ 1 billion lower than the amount originally reported before the revision. In 2025, pro forma net revenue totaled R$ 18.3 billion.
The concession most affected by the review was Águas do Rio , which, according to the company, is still "in the process of maturing and converting its customer portfolio." Águas do Rio covers more than 20 municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro and more than 100 neighborhoods in the state capital.
The delay also affected Aegea's results via equity accounting, reducing the contribution of subsidiaries linked to Águas do Rio and the value of the investment recorded in the balance sheet. In 2025, Aegea's pro forma revenue from this concession grew by only 2%, well below the 8% of the operation.
In the market, the delay in releasing the financial results had been fueling distrust, with Fitch and S&P downgrading the company's credit rating. On the eve of the results release last week, Aegea's debentures led the widening of premiums in the credit market. AEGP17 was the bond that suffered the most, with spreads widening by 3.76 percentage points and ending the week at 6.3%.
Today, the company's shares remained relatively stable, with low liquidity. "The earnings report helped to calm things down. It came in line with what we expected," says a senior credit analyst at a major bank.
Among the funds with the greatest exposure to the company were Vinland XP Fundo Incentivado, Icatu Vanguarda Iporã, and Polo Crédito Corporativo, which had 24.4%, 12.6%, and 10.5% of their portfolios allocated to Aegea securities, respectively. The data was collected by Credit Guide, based on the most recent available information on the managers' portfolios, referring to November.
In a call with investors this Monday, the 13th, CEO Radamés Casseb stated that the adjustments were necessary to bring the results closer to cash generation and that the changes were purely accounting-related.
“The increase in defaults was exclusively related to the change in methodology. There is no impact from a genuine deterioration in our accounts receivable when we look at Rio de Janeiro; in fact, it's an improvement, and also in the ecosystem,” says Casseb.
According to the CEO, the delay was due to the complexity of the company's financial statements, following the company's strong growth in recent years.
“We went from 50 cities in December 2020 to 892 cities in 2025, from 4,000 employees to 25,000, and from 10 concessions to 65 concessions,” he said. “We redid the balance sheets for the last five years of all concessions.”
According to the executive, the adjustments had an impact of approximately 50 basis points on leverage. Aegea ended 2025 with pro forma net debt of R$ 47.05 billion, equivalent to 4.51 times EBITDA. In 2024, the ratio was 4.13 times, already considering the revised figures.
