At Vale, figures were delivered even with a turbulent external market.

The days leading up to Vale 's second-quarter earnings report this year were marked by a mix of expectations. On July 22, the group gave a preview of what was to come by announcing a production of 84.25 million tons of iron ore between April and June, its highest volume for the period since 2018.

At the same time, there was growing concern among investors and analysts regarding the extent of the impact of rising oil prices – in the wake of conflicts in the Middle East – on the company's costs and, consequently, on the advances signaled in its operational performance.

These questions were answered on the evening of Thursday, July 30th, after the close of trading on the B3 stock exchange, when Vale released its final figures for the period. And, in the company's view, the outcome was positive.

“In short, it was a turbulent quarter in the external world,” said Marcelo Bacci , CFO of Vale, in a conversation with journalists. “But we delivered very satisfactory results and, so far, we are receiving quite positive feedback from the market.”

To support this statement, the executive highlighted, for example, the group's adjusted EBITDA, which increased 9% year-on-year to US$3.67 billion. Meanwhile, the pro forma EBITDA, which excludes expenses related to Brumadinho and non-recurring items, rose 19% to US$4 billion.

In another line highlighted by Bacci, Vale reported free cash flow of US$1.5 billion, representing a 49% increase over the figure reported by the company for the same indicator in the same period a year earlier.

This performance allowed the company to reduce its expanded net debt, which includes commitments related to reparations in Brumadinho and Mariana, by 4%, to US$16.6 billion in the quarter.

In contrast, Vale ended the second quarter with a net profit of US$1.37 billion, representing a 35% decrease compared to the figure recorded on the bottom line of its balance sheet in the same period of 2025. This came in below the projections compiled by Bloomberg , which were US$1.95 billion.

According to the company, the indicator was pressured by factors such as a US$798 million loss in the mark-to-market valuation of derivatives and a provision for non-recurring expenses. Here, however, Bacci made a reservation.

“In our market, net income is not a good measure of performance, as it is subject to a number of non-recurring effects and exchange rate fluctuations,” said the CFO. “That’s why our investors’ focus is always much more on EBITDA and cash generation.”

Regarding costs, the other line under the market's spotlight, Vale reported that, in iron ore, the main point of attention, the C1 cash cost (from mine to port) grew by 9%, while all-in costs expanded by 18% between April and June.

Following this path, under the expectation of a stronger real and higher oil prices, the group announced a revision of its guidance on these two fronts for 2026. In the case of the C1 cash cost, from the range of US$ 20 to US$ 21.50 to US$ 22.50 to US$ 23.50. And in the all-in option , from US$ 52 to US$ 56 to US$ 58 to US$ 62.

“For this new guidance, we are assuming an average oil price of $85 per barrel and an average exchange rate of $5.13 for the second half of the year,” said Bacci. “And we don’t expect any further revisions, unless there is a very large variation at these levels.”

The company also revised its all-in cost estimates for copper and nickel for 2026. In this case, however, downwards. For copper, from the range of US$1,000 to US$1,500 per ton to US$500. And for nickel, from US$12,000 to US$13,500 per ton to US$10,000 to US$11,500.

“Unlike iron ore, oil doesn’t have a significant effect on copper and nickel,” said Bacci. “What weighed on these revisions was the selling price of byproducts like gold, and in the case of copper, and copper itself, in the case of nickel, which are higher than we had anticipated.”

Regarding production, the new guidance points to an estimate of 360,000 to 380,000 tons of copper, compared to the previous range of 350,000 to 380,000 tons, and 185,000 to 200,000 tons of nickel. The previous projection for nickel was 175,000 to 200,000 tons.

Exaggerated fears?

In other figures for the quarter, the mining company's net revenue grew 19% to US$10.49 billion. Sales grew in all segments. Iron ore increased by 3%; copper by 10%; and nickel by 7%.

In this context, Vale announced the distribution of R$ 8.64 billion in dividends and interest on equity, to be paid in September, in addition to a new program for the repurchase of up to 100 million shares within 18 months.

In its report, Itaú BBA states that Vale reported positive and above-expected results, despite weak cost performance in its iron ore division, as anticipated. One of the highlights was the Pro Forma EBITDA, which came in approximately 5% above the bank's projections and consensus.

With a buy recommendation and a target price of R$ 95 for the stock, the bank also highlighted that higher revenue from iron ore offset the increased costs. In addition, it emphasized the performance of the base metals division, the generation of free cash flow, and the reduction of expanded net debt.

Similarly, BTG Pactual pointed out that the balance sheet came in better than expected, exceeding estimates in areas such as EBITDA, despite a more challenging quarter in terms of costs – the bank also questioned whether fears regarding this area were exaggerated.

"Management continues to deliver stronger operational performance, disciplined capital allocation, and greater consistency in execution," wrote BTG, which highlighted the fact that the restructuring and growth pipeline for the base metals division remains underestimated by the market.

“Vale expects to exceed its copper production capacity to around 500,000 tons by 2030, with the potential to reach around 700,000 tons by 2035, which would place it among the largest copper producers in the world. In our opinion, this is still far from being reflected in the company's valuation,” stated the BTG analysts, who added:

“Even so, the shares continue to trade as if the company were focused exclusively on iron ore, with a multiple of 4.2 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA, offering an attractive return of 8 to 9% for shareholders.”

Vale's shares were up slightly by 0.76% around 2:30 PM, trading at R$ 76.67 and valuing the company at R$ 326.3 billion. Year-to-date, the shares have appreciated by 6.5%.