If the early elimination of the Brazilian national team frustrated fans in the 2026 FIFA World Cup , held in June and July, in another category linked to the tournament, beer , sales disappointed the market.
This seems to be, at least, the case for Ambev , which released its second-quarter results on Thursday, July 30th. Although the Group's CEO, Carlos Lisboa , defends his team's performance during the period.
“The numbers came in very much in line with our expectations,” Lisboa said in a call with analysts this afternoon. “The World Cup is a six-month activation platform, and almost all of our geographies delivered very interesting results, not only in volume but also in brand equity .”
In this context, he observed that the tournament generated incremental demand in different channels and regions. But he stressed that these impulses were partially offset by adverse weather conditions, with average temperatures milder than in 2025 and well below 2024 levels.
Taking into account these two factors, Ambev's beer segment recorded a 5% growth between April and June, reaching 21.03 million hectoliters, which the group attributed mainly to the strength of its premium portfolio.
Even with this expansion, the reported volume fell short of market expectations, a factor highlighted in reports by investment banks and analysts. This was the case with XP, which reinforced one of the points mentioned by Lisboa.
"Despite year-over-year volume growth of 5%, supported by the company's strong commercial execution compared to its peers, the positive impact of the climate fell short of expectations, generating some disappointment compared to the consensus, which projected expansion close to 7%," wrote XP.
Analysts at the firm said they expected a negative reaction from the stocks, as optimism had been building throughout the quarter but ultimately failed to be reflected in the reported figures.
In this vein, the shares opened today's trading session with a drop of more than 3%, and during the morning, the decline ranged from 1.5% to more than 2%. Around 3:25 PM, however, the drop was at 0.19%, valuing the company at R$ 245.2 billion. Year-to-date, the stock has accumulated a gain of 14.5%.
BTG Pactual also reinforced this "frustration." While acknowledging that Ambev reported good results, the bank highlighted that the increase in beer volume in Brazil was 1.6% below its estimates, although the group gained market share in the premium segment.
"It wasn't a memorable quarter, nor a period that we believe will generate substantial upward revisions to profit estimates. However, the company maintains the qualities that underpin our investment thesis," noted BTG, with a buy recommendation and a target price of R$ 20 for the stock.
Itaú BBA, which has a neutral recommendation and a target price of R$17 for the stock, stated that Ambev reported weak results, with revenue below expectations across the board. During the period, the company's total net revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, to R$20.14 billion.
According to the bank, the performance of the beer category in Brazil was the main point of deviation from its estimates for the quarter, both in volume and prices, even accounting for the offsetting effect of other higher-than-usual operating revenues.
“In our view, the market had already priced in a significant boost from consumption related to the FIFA World Cup, while the reported figures suggest a more limited benefit than anticipated,” wrote analysts at Itaú BBA, who added:
"Although management has attributed part of the performance to the boost from the 2026 World Cup, we expect investors to question the extent to which the event will effectively sustain Ambev's annual results."
When discussing outlooks, Lisboa once again cited climate conditions. He mentioned the positive impacts of these events on the 2024 figures, and, conversely, the negative effects in 2025, especially from the second half of the year onwards, when the drop in average temperatures intensified.
“It’s always good to keep in mind that in 2025 we had two different years within the same year,” said the CEO. “Which means we just completed the worst comparative base cycle we’ve ever had.”
At this point, the executive emphasized that, as they begin this new phase, and based on the information the company has at hand from various climate forecasts from different institutes, there is no indication of a scenario with as many impacts as occurred in 2025.
“The weather is tricky, and I’m not a meteorologist, but current forecasts don’t indicate major temperature variations,” he stated. “However, we’ve learned a lot over these past two years, and we’re working very closely with producers and suppliers so that we can face any scenario together.”
Other numbers
In other figures from the second-quarter balance sheet, Ambev reported a net profit of R$ 3.47 billion, representing a 24.5% increase over the performance reported in the same line item a year earlier.
On the same basis of comparison, adjusted EBITDA grew 3.6% to R$6.37 billion, while the EBITDA margin registered an expansion of 100 basis points to 31.6%. In the quarter, the company reported a 1.4% expansion in consolidated volumes.
On a separate shelf besides beer, Ambev reported a 4.4% drop in volumes for its non-alcoholic beverage segment in the Brazilian market, to 7.61 million hectoliters.
According to the company, the decline in the segment reflected the strong comparison base with the same period in 2025 and the decision to discontinue volumes from a lower-return channel.
The group also reported that it ended the quarter with net cash of R$ 15.39 billion, a figure that represented a decrease compared to the amount of R$ 16.93 billion reported on December 31, 2025.
Along with the financial report, Ambev also announced the approval of a new distribution of interest on equity, of approximately R$ 1.1 billion, to be paid by December 2026, in addition to the payment, on October 6, of the third and final installment of interest on equity approved in December 2025.
