Brasilia - The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) announced a set of measures and programs to stimulate the economy in 2026 that, while not expected to have a significant fiscal impact, has the potential to put pressure on public debt, according to economists interviewed by NeoFeed . It could also burden, albeit briefly, the oil and gas sector and the super-rich, in addition to frustrating state revenues.
The vast majority of the "goodies package," a tactic typically used in presidential election years, has no primary impact on federal accounts, notes economist Alexandre Andrade, director of the Independent Fiscal Institute (IFI), linked to the Senate. However, it increases the government's financial expenses, which puts pressure on the growth of the Union's gross debt and, consequently, the basic interest rate (Selic).
However, to compensate for the tax revenue loss (revenue that the government forgoes collecting) that it will have in measures such as those announced to contain the prices of diesel and other fuels, for example, the economic team has targeted some areas that, in practice, will help to pay part of the bill.
In the case of the package to mitigate the impact of the war in Iran on oil prices in Brazil, which has demanded the largest number of government measures this year, a decree by Lula eliminated PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel fuel, and several provisional measures issued in sequence granted subsidies to diesel producers and importers, as well as importers of cooking gas .
In total, the tax revenue forgone is around R$ 30 billion, but the government also expects to offset this with the collection of export tax on oil, from which it is estimated to also raise R$ 30 billion; in other words, the measures generated a neutral fiscal impact.
Despite the government arguing that it has been striving for "fiscal neutrality" in these measures, the taxation of crude oil exports (12% tax) and diesel (progressive rate of 50%) has generated a reaction from the oil and gas sector.
The Brazilian Institute of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (IBP) said in a statement that the 12% Export Tax alone "imposes an unnecessary burden on a sector that already allocates about 70% of its income to taxes and government royalties."
"In this context, the creation of the export tax, in addition to its purely revenue-raising nature, represents an overlap with existing mechanisms and increases the perception of risk regarding the business environment in Brazil," said the IBP.
The projected revenue from taxes on oil exports aims to cover the R$ 20 billion that the government will forgo due to the waiver of PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel, and the R$ 10 billion that will be spent subsidizing the fuel until the end of 2026.
On Friday, May 22nd, the Minister of Planning, Bruno Moretti, reiterated that the government is still counting on an increase in extraordinary federal revenues, such as the sale of oil by PPSA (a state-owned company), oil royalties, and corporate income tax (IRPJ) from oil companies.
He considered, however, that for now the economic team has decided to adopt a "conservative" strategy by not yet appropriating these revenues, amidst sharp fluctuations in Brent crude (the price of a barrel of oil on the international market).
"We have some extraordinary revenue, which we can convert into measures to mitigate the oil price shocks resulting from the war," Moretti said, commenting on the government's projections made in the second bimonthly report on expenses and revenues.
As part of the package aimed at reducing fuel prices, the government also provided a new subsidy for diesel, subsidizing R$ 1.20 of the price charged at the pump.
Half of that amount, however, is being covered by the states. According to the Finance Minister, Dario Durigan, only two governors did not accept. In total, the measure will cost the federal government and state governments R$ 4 billion.
Furthermore, after the first round of measures for diesel, the government also subsidized gasoline, at an estimated cost of R$ 2.4 billion.
"Some measures impact the primary result, such as the reduction of PIS/Cofins taxes on fuels and the subsidy for diesel oil, because they involve revenue loss or revenue increase. Now, for the ' blouse tax ,' they haven't presented a compensatory measure, but they should compensate with the revenue gains from oil exploration," says Andrade, from IFI, who also estimates that the government's package of benefits could inject around R$ 295 billion into the economy.
The economist is referring to the so-called "blouse tax," a 20% tax on international purchases of up to US$50, which had been levied in Brazil by the government itself since May 2024, during the administration of former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Last week, however, President Lula decided to eliminate it.
The elimination of the tax favors purchases of imported goods on online platforms such as Shein, Shopee, and AliExpress. And the estimated tax revenue loss in 2026 due to this benefit is estimated at up to R$ 6 billion.
The public debt was left to suffer the consequences.
Overall, the government also relies on measures with popular appeal, both new and existing, which have a strong political component, even more so in an election year.
On Thursday, May 21st, President Lula launched a credit program, "Move Aplicativos," using resources from BNDES, to finance the purchase of automobiles by taxi drivers and app-based drivers. The measure has no fiscal impact because it was designed to avoid using budget resources (such as interest rate equalization on the lines of credit).
The funds (R$ 30 billion) will come from the Treasury, which will then transfer them to BNDES. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, the financing lines will be available starting June 29th.
BNDES is included in a set of parafiscal measures that do not impact the budget. This includes the expansion of Band 4 of the "Minha Casa, Minha Vida" program, credit for renovations (Reforma Casa Brasil), subsidies for electricity bills (Luz do Povo), the new mortgage credit model, and private payroll-deducted loans.
Other measures include the Desenrola 2.0 program, which will allow workers to withdraw up to 20% of their FGTS (Severance Indemnity Fund) balance to pay off debts starting next week, May 26th.
The government estimates that the funds will be withdrawn by approximately R$ 8.2 billion. On the same day, workers who opted for the birthday withdrawal option but were dismissed without just cause between 2020 and 2025 will be able to make a supplementary withdrawal from their FGTS (Severance Indemnity Fund), another government benefit announced by the Ministry of Labor.
Among other "good deeds," this year also saw the implementation of an exemption from Personal Income Tax (IRPF) for those earning up to R$ 5,000, and a partial exemption for those earning up to R$ 7,350 per month.
The measure was approved last year in Congress and involves a tax waiver of R$ 31 billion. The government hopes to offset this impact through what it calls "taxation of the super-rich," meaning those who earn more than R$ 60,000.
The income tax exemption is among the measures with a primary impact, which have a fiscal impact on the government, as is the People's Gas Program, which promised free gas cylinders to more than 15 million families (estimated cost of R$ 5.1 billion in 2026). In the case of income tax, however, there was compensation through another measure.
Economist Samuel Pessoa, a researcher at GVV Ibre, analyzes that by not using the revenue obtained from the sale of Petrobras oil, for example, the government chose to use this extra revenue to subsidize fuels and not to pay off the public debt. "We can expect an increase in the gross federal debt. If the extra revenue were used to reduce debt, the debt would fall and put less pressure on interest rates," he states.
"Ultimately, the whole issue is electoral. Bolsonaro gave credit to taxi drivers. Lula gave credit to taxi drivers to buy taxis; it's almost the same thing. The measures are mostly directed at groups that benefit, but they generate side effects that put pressure on public debt, economic demand, and interest rates. But families are tired of high interest rates. So we don't get anywhere. We give with one hand and take away with the other," Pessoa adds.
