The Supreme Court's reversal of the widespread tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in February triggered a rare phenomenon in the American economy: billions of dollars are flowing back into corporate coffers, in a kind of accidental stimulus that comes at a time of strong inflationary pressure, rising energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainties.
It is estimated that up to US$166 billion will be refunded to approximately 330,000 importers in the US who absorbed the extra cost of the tariffs imposed by Trump on several countries. However, foreign exporters who may have absorbed the surcharges on their products are excluded from the process.
The corporate sector, which for years absorbed the impact of import tariffs, is now witnessing the accelerated release of refunds that have already exceeded US$71 billion sent to the Treasury for payment.
The Supreme Court's decision overturned the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), paving the way for importers to request refunds through a government portal launched in late April 2025.
The court reversal transformed Trump's tariff policy into a "collect and refund" cycle, in which the total potential refund amount equals the total amount collected.
In practice, the tariffs did not generate net revenue, did not help balance the government budget – Trump's justification for imposing import taxes – and now cost more than they yielded, because the government also pays interest on the refunds.
The fiscal impact caused by the tariff increase is significant. Between October and June, the US government accumulated a deficit of US$1.4 trillion, greater than the deficit for the entire previous fiscal year.
The Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget projects that the total deficit will exceed $2 trillion this year, and the net loss of tariff revenue contributes to this scenario. Trump, in turn, has expanded exemptions and reduced tariffs in cost-pressured sectors such as fertilizers and agricultural equipment, which further diminishes revenue.
For companies, however, the focus is on the destination of the refunds. PepsiCo stated that it will use the money to offset commodity inflation, which has intensified with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
McCormick, the spice manufacturer, also plans to direct most of the refunds toward covering higher costs stemming from the war with Iran and energy volatility. Nike, for its part, expects to recover nearly $1 billion, an extraordinary gain that has already helped improve its profit margins.
Bank of America notes that refunds are being released faster than anticipated and should be completed by September. "This return of funds may act as a temporary disinflationary force, helping companies absorb costs before passing them on to consumers," says Stephen Juneau, an economist at BofA.
He points to price cuts in retail that are larger than normal for this time of year, such as the case of BJ's Wholesale Club, which reinvested refunds to reduce overall prices by about half a percentage point. "The disinflationary effect, however, will be limited, as many companies may choose to write down debt or simply save the money," Juneau adds.
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reinforce this view. According to them, the real economic impact of the reimbursements is less than the total amount reported, because it depends on the financial situation of the beneficiary companies.
They estimate that only a third of the reimbursements will go to companies classified as financially constrained—those most likely to use the unexpected capital injection to hire, invest, or reduce prices. The remainder is expected to be directed toward debt repayment, share buybacks, or cash reserves, with a limited effect on economic activity.
The return of the tariffs also creates a stalemate for exporting companies, including Brazilian ones. Since the reimbursement is made directly to the American buyer, companies like Eucatex and sectors of agribusiness need to resort to legal action or commercial negotiations to try to recover losses accumulated during the period the tariffs were in effect.
