After raising approximately R$459 million in another follow-on offering in March of this year, Pague Menos is back on the radar of XP analysts. And with a good dose of optimism.

In a report sent to clients, XP resumed coverage of the Ceará-based pharmacy chain with a buy recommendation and a target price of R$ 8.50 for the PGMN3 stock, which translates to an upside of 48.6% over the stock price of R$ 5.75 at the close of trading on Wednesday, April 22.

“Overall, we see Pague Menos as a self-help story, with solid structural trends and earnings momentum,” write analysts Danniela Eiger, Laryssa Sumer, and Pedro Caravina of XP.

The trio emphasizes that the network can also act as an "interest player," although recent stock offerings have left the company's leverage at much more controlled levels, around 1.2 times for 2026.

As part of this favorable outlook, XP emphasizes that it still sees room for Pague Menos to continue capturing productivity gains through operational improvements, strategic initiatives, and the maturation of its stores, after combining organic expansion with the challenges of integrating Extrafarma.

From this perspective, analysts cite that, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average monthly sales per store in the chain were around R$ 860,000, which represented 25% less than the rate recorded by RD , the sector leader. The firm projects that Pague Menos will reach the level of R$ 965,000 by the end of 2026.

In another component, XP points out that, although the macroeconomic scenario is putting pressure on consumers' purchasing power, especially in Pague Menos' main markets, the chain has an attractive pricing strategy as one of its tools to mitigate these risks.

“Our latest XP Drugstore Radar confirms exactly that, with Pague Menos standing out as the most competitive in prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, and healthcare, even when compared to marketplaces, in most categories,” says XP.

At the same time, analysts understand that the company will continue to benefit from the structural trend of slimming pens , based on the principle of semaglutide (GLP-1), despite recent investor concerns that XP considers unjustified.

“We observe investors concerned about short-term dynamics, amidst the supply disruption in January and the calendar effects in February. In our opinion, these are temporary effects that should not compromise the future potential of LPG-1,” says another excerpt from the report.

In this vein, based on data from XP itself, which shows a strong recovery starting in February, analysts point out that there is still much more to come in the category, whose market, according to the firm's new forecast, should generate R$ 17 billion in 2026 and R$ 28 billion in 2027.

In addition to the arrival of generic versions of semaglutide, which should start being sold in the second half of the year, the trio highlights that there are still innovations emerging in the prescription drug category, both from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, currently undergoing approval by Anvisa (Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency).

"This should support continued growth in the prescription drug category, as innovation should prevent cannibalization caused by the launch of generics, especially since the new drugs offer more effective treatments, albeit at higher prices," writes XP.

The report also included previews of Pague Menos' balance sheet for the first quarter of 2026. For that period, XP projects that gross sales will grow by 15%, driven precisely by factors such as resilient demand for LPG-1 and the expansion and maturation of existing stores.

In other indicators, the projection is for a 40 basis point growth in EBITDA compared to the same period a year earlier, a 10 basis point increase in gross margin on the same basis of comparison, and a net profit of R$ 25 million, an annual increase of more than 100%.

For the year 2026, XP forecasts a 14% growth in gross sales, with an 11% jump in same-store sales and a still controlled expansion of units, given that the company remains focused on its deleveraging process.

XP's analysis comes a day after BTG Pactual also restarted coverage of the stock, with a buy recommendation and a target price of R$ 9 per share. This reflects the perception that Pague Menos is beginning a new growth cycle, now with a more solid formula.

"Its recent capital increase marks the beginning of a new phase, strengthening the balance sheet and allowing the company to pursue greater productivity (driven by GLP-1 opportunities) and a renewed (albeit gradual) expansion pipeline," wrote the BTG analysts.

After opening trading this Thursday, April 23rd, with a rise of more than 2%, Pague Menos shares were up 0.87% around 11:20 AM, valuing the chain at R$ 4.35 billion. Year-to-date, the shares have accumulated a decline of 5.2%.