As if curtailment —the cuts in generation from centralized renewable power plants that led the ONS, the system's regulatory body, to discard 20% of the solar and wind energy generated in the country last year—weren't enough, the electricity sector is facing a new crisis, this time resulting from price distortions in the energy market —a business model that moves around R$ 150 billion per year.
A series of factors that began to align two years ago ended up creating a perfect storm that is now hitting the sector - causing bankruptcies among energy trading companies.
This scorched-earth scenario, which has led to a nearly 40% drop in liquidity in the energy market by 2025, is forcing the entire sector's supply chain to seek alternatives. Using different strategies, a large energy company, the Bolt Group , and a medium-sized trading company, Voltera, revealed to NeoFeed what they are doing to prevent price volatility from jeopardizing their businesses.
The current crisis began in early 2024, ironically amid expectations of huge deals with the opening of the free energy market to medium and high-voltage consumers. This opening occurred at a time of historically low energy prices, driving mass migration and significant discounts.
Typical electricity bills for this new layer of consumers – medium-sized companies and commercial establishments, such as retail chains, supermarkets and shopping malls – have fallen between 15% and 30%, expanding not only the customer base but also the complexity of contract management for generators and traders.
The phase of minimum prices was left behind last year, with a sharp adjustment in energy pricing to levels above the historical average. This is because, already as an effect of curtailment , the ONS (National System Operator) made the pricing model more conservative, prioritizing greater water conservation and more frequent activation of thermal power plants, aiming for energy security in the face of the intermittency of renewables and transmission limitations.
These models, managed by electronic platforms, consider variables such as hydrology, load, thermal dispatch, risk aversion – the possibility of reservoirs drying up due to lack of rain, for example – and operational constraints. The result was increased operating costs and greater volatility, especially in the short term.
“In practice, the price of energy is not defined by negotiation between buyers and sellers, that is, by supply and demand, but rather by mathematical models and weather conditions, which in turn are determining factors in the formation of prices in the free market,” says Victor Hugo Iocca, director of electricity at Abrace , an association that brings together large commercial and industrial energy consumers.
To give an idea of the increase in this price volatility, a survey by the Brazilian Association of Energy Traders (Abraceel) shows that, from 2024 to March 2026, the long-term price in the free market rose 59%, the quarterly price increased 121%, and the average Settlement Price of Differences (PLD) – which is used as a reference price for the Brazilian electricity sector – increased 84%, while the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) varied by 5%.
Increased price volatility, with surges even in scenarios of full reservoirs, has heightened the need for financial guarantees, putting pressure on trading companies with fragile cash flow and hindering the rolling over of positions and the sale of energy.
Large, aggressive energy trading companies, such as Gold Energia, accumulated losses exceeding R$ 1 billion and went bankrupt, while 2W Energia and América Energia suffered severe impacts and broke contracts. In early 2026, the Elétron Energia group, also with debts exceeding R$ 1 billion, filed for bankruptcy protection, followed by IBS Energy, which sought protection after its liabilities reached R$ 57 million.
The most notorious case involves Tradener, the first energy trading company in the country: the Paraná state court suspended part of an injunction that allowed Tradener to change the way it passed on energy costs to customers, who would then bear additional costs due to price-time differences – costs ignored by the trading company.
With this, the court maintained only the 60-day protection for Tradener against foreclosures while the trading company negotiates with creditors a liability that could reach R$ 5 billion, according to market estimates. In a statement, the company affirms that it is taking measures to “ensure the continuity of its operations and protect service to its clients while negotiating, in an orderly manner, a solution with its counterparties.”
Bet on the free market.
The Bolt Group – which operates in retail, trading, distributed generation, structured operations and international exchange – maintained its expansion despite the volatility.
With a presence in eight states and revenues of R$ 1.5 billion, the company aims for the complete opening of the free market in 2027, to which up to 100 million consumers could migrate — far beyond the 30,000 new units of the last two years, restricted to consumers of large cargo.
“The energy sector has been waiting for the full opening of the free market for 30 years,” says Gustavo Ayala, CEO of the Bolt Group, to NeoFeed , referring to the market's estimated potential – which could generate up to R$ 250 billion per year in the long term.
The strategy aimed at this opening combines three verticals and strong automation with AI: "This opening will require a new operational model, with artificial intelligence at the center," says Ayala.
Bolt's platform already operates with 30,000 low-voltage customers – customers of the "energy by subscription" service from distributed generation (DG) plants, with revenue of R$ 120 million – and approximately 300 customers in the retail free market.
Self-generation of energy is also highlighted as a pillar for mitigating volatility and reducing costs, with 21 projects totaling 220 average megawatts (MWm). Among them, the partnership with Rede D'Or stands out, receiving clean energy from 337,000 solar panels for more than 70 hospitals in 13 states from the Lagoinha Complex, in Russas (CE).
The focus on opening up the free market, however, required Bolt to devise a model that was both simple and aggressive: buying energy wholesale and selling it retail. According to Ayala, until 2030, the reference for the consumer will tend to be the regulated market tariff – with adjustments and an upward trend – gradually migrating to prices from the free market itself in the following years.
"At the wholesale level, the future curve shows plateaus by year: 2027 is the most expensive; there are expected decreases for the following years and even lower prices in the very long term, such as in 2035, with expectations of relief through new investments in supply and transmission," he says.
On the other hand, from 2028 onwards, the expectation is for accelerated growth in retail due to increased profitability, combining a drop in future costs with a higher captive tariff – the one that the average consumer currently pays to distributors – allowing for competitive discounts.
The “secret” lies in retail sales. “Projections of energy prices at R$ 400 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2028–2030 allow for structuring offers with competitive discounts,” says Ayala. The average PLD (Price of Energy in the Spot Market) today is R$ 265.75 per MWh.
Bolt's projected revenue for 2028, around R$2 billion, doesn't differ much from current revenue. "But the proposal to buy wholesale and sell retail allows for greater margin growth; along with self-production for medium and large clients, we've managed to distance ourselves from the risks of trading," he reveals.
'Downward phase'
Alan Henn, CEO of Voltera – a trading company that has been operating in the market for six years, with around 500 clients and an average portfolio of 55 MW, selling energy only to end consumers – summarizes the current situation as temporary.
According to him, with the price surge and risk management failures, some suppliers broke contracts signed during the "downward phase," leaving consumers without assistance.
"These customers had to seek new contracts at higher prices or request a return to the regulated market - which requires five years' notice, although there may be shorter windows - significantly increasing their energy costs," he says.
Henn states that the problems were more concentrated among new mid-sized and retail entrants, which he estimates represent between 10% and 15% of consumers who recently migrated to the free market and are having to seek new suppliers due to high prices. Large consumers, he believes, were less affected by more stringent counterparty selection criteria.
“The problem is not structural in the free market, but rather in hiring choices and risk management,” he warns. “Those who are unemployed, choose short-term contracts without adequate protection, or have been affected by contract breaches pay more.”
Henn states that the short term, up to 3 months, remains highly volatile, dependent on hydrology and load, making exposure to the spot market risky. In the medium to long term, the outlook is for stabilization and a downward trend in the curve with sufficient supply and capacity auctions: "Current prices reflect more the operation and economic situation than structural physical scarcity," he believes.
To avoid this volatility, Hein says that Voltera adopts a conservative management approach, operating "paired" – a combination of buying and selling – to avoid directional price risk, prioritizing operational stability and predictability.
"The main risk assumed is consumer credit risk; the company shifts its price exposure by allocating 100% of the energy purchased to sales contracts," he says.
Voltera maintains contracts with multiple generators in different regions for diversification and delivery security. It offers a management and advisory platform to optimize consumption and reduce penalties, democratizing tools previously restricted to large companies. The company expects to grow 100% by 2026 and exceed R$ 100 million in revenue, maintaining commercial and operational discipline.
According to Henn, the current situation reflects the real cost of operating in the free market, which will be passed on to the regulated market in annual price adjustments. "Adjustments already observed close to 16%, four times the projected IPCA (Brazilian inflation index), indicate that the impact affects all consumers, not just those in the free market," he says.
He also expresses optimism regarding the opening of the free market. "For the next stage of opening, until 2027, consumer education, the creation of a Supplier of Last Resort (SUI) to serve the underserved, and the strengthening of governance are essential, in addition to products and infrastructure that support the scale of the energy retail sector," he suggests.
