Following the AI boom, the stock market is already preparing for a "profit bubble" for listed companies.

Forecasts for corporate profit growth in the United States have accelerated again at a pace not seen since the post-pandemic recovery, reigniting the debate about the extent to which the market is pricing in a future that may not materialize.

According to data from Bloomberg , analysts now predict a 25% increase in profits for S&P 500 companies next year, driven by a resilient American economy and the boom in artificial intelligence (AI).

However, on the eve of the second-quarter earnings season, some investors are increasingly concerned about how quickly analysts' estimates are rising—a surge that, while exciting parts of the financial sector, also raises fears that the market is building a "profit bubble," fueled more by enthusiasm than by fundamentals.

Consensus estimates for next year's profits, for example, have risen almost 20% in six months, the biggest jump since 2021. Managers and strategists say the market may be overestimating the ability of AI companies to transform massive spending into consistent profitability.

“Profit growth forecasts for listed companies over the next two years are growing at an extremely high rate, something we’ve never seen outside of a post-crisis recovery,” warns Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, quoted by the British newspaper Financial Times . “What the market expects is the eventual realization that these forecasts will not materialize,” he adds.

Rising infrastructure costs, potential drops in demand for cutting-edge technology, and the difficulty of converting investments into disproportionate profit margins are cited as potential causes for concern.

In the sectors most directly linked to the AI boom—semiconductors, hyperscalars, and the entire hardware and services supply chain—optimism is even more intense. Demand for computing power remains high, and companies that supply chips, servers, cooling systems, and data center infrastructure have seen their profit projections skyrocket.

Analysts at Capital Economics, however, warned this week that "AI-related stock markets may be approaching a point where earnings expectations and capital expenditure projections become difficult to sustain" and that a correction in these indicators could "trigger a broad stock market pullback."

Market booming

The backdrop to this movement is a stock market that, despite doubts, continues to reach new highs. The S&P 500 has accumulated gains of about 20% in 12 months, while the Nasdaq has advanced more than 25%, buoyed by its best quarter in six years.

The strength of corporate results, on the other hand, has helped keep valuations in check: even with indexes at record levels, American stocks are trading at multiples close to 20 times future earnings — below the peaks seen last year and far from the excesses of the dot-com bubble.

For some investors, this reduces the risk of a classic price bubble. For others, however, lower multiples may indicate that the market is already close to the profitability limit of companies, which would make it a less favorable time for new investments.

Beyond the heightened expectations, other warning signs are beginning to accumulate. Companies are rushing to issue shares and debt in significant volumes, taking advantage of investor appetite and still abundant liquidity. SpaceX, for example, conducted a record-breaking initial public offering, accompanied by a multi-billion dollar debt deal.

At the same time, the US interest rate market is undergoing a repricing: traders now project an increase of at least 0.25 percentage points by the end of the year, in contrast to the cuts expected in early 2026. For managers, this reduces the safety margin for corporate profits, as higher financing costs tend to put pressure on results.

The combination of high expectations, accelerated revisions, and signs of stress in some segments is leading some investors to question how long the market will be able to sustain positive surprises.

Industry sources say that vulnerabilities are already emerging, especially in companies that depend on long investment cycles or demand that is highly sensitive to the cost of capital. The debate, they say, is not whether there will be a correction, but when and with what intensity it will come.

The most compelling counterpoint to the widespread optimism comes from an investor who gained fame precisely for seeing risks where few others did.

Michael Burry , known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis and for his contrarian bets, this week increased his short positions against companies directly linked to the AI boom — and also against companies that indirectly ride this wave.

He opened short positions in names like Tesla, Applied Materials, and Caterpillar, in addition to betting against the SOXX ETF, which tracks semiconductor stocks. In an analysis published on his platform, Burry stated that the sector is experiencing a moment of overvaluation rarely seen so clearly, and that investor enthusiasm is ignoring structural risks.

The trigger for his new round of warnings was the announcement that Samsung and SK Hynix plan to invest more than US$520 billion in building a semiconductor hub in South Korea. For Burry, this type of billion-dollar investment reinforces the doubt about when — or if — such investments will generate a return.

The Nasdaq, which rose nearly 4% in the two days following the announcement, was cited by him as an example of euphoria that cannot be sustained.

“The immediate cause of this increase is the large expenditures announced by Korea,” he wrote. “Well, I see this as the beginning of the end,” he added, arguing that spending of this magnitude usually marks the peak of optimism before a reversal.

Burry also increased his short positions in Nvidia and Palantir, companies he considers vulnerable to risky financing models or excessive reliance on government contracts. The criticism drew harsh responses: Nvidia denied any structural problems, while Palantir's CEO called Burry "completely crazy."

Even so, the investor maintains his view that the market is repeating patterns from the dot-com bubble, inflating prices without considering risks and overestimating the ability of AI companies to transform colossal investments into sustainable profits.

For Burry, overconfidence is precisely what makes the scenario more dangerous — and what could transform the current euphoria into a profound correction when expectations cease to match reality.