A good entry point for a good story. That, in short, is the justification for a report sent to clients by Citi about Motiva this Monday, June 29th, in which the bank raises its recommendation for the stock from neutral to buy, and its target price from R$15 to R$15.60.
The updates come in the wake of the recent movement of the stock which, since its peak in 2026 on April 17, has registered a drop of more than 18%, taking into account the level of R$ 14.37 on Friday, June 26.
"With the stock trading at a real internal rate of return of 11% in our estimates, we consider the current valuation attractive, while the risks arising from higher capex and leverage appear to be under control," points out one of the excerpts from the report, which highlights the group's solid fundamentals.
Citi points out that, following the recent drop in share prices, the adjustment of multiples has brought the market value of the infrastructure holding company to a premium range of 2.5% to 3% over real sovereign interest rates, compared to around 1.5% at the beginning of the year.
"Although this level is below the historical average of 4%, we consider the risk-return ratio attractive, given that the perceived risks of the stock are lower than historically," the analysts write.
Citi's team also estimates that the likely contractual changes in Motiva's concessions will add 7.6% to the equity value relative to the bank's current valuation , since these investments generate returns exceeding the company's cost of equity.
"Motiva's capital expenditure (capex) backlog should grow by 18% with these changes (or 30% if we include the Regis Bittencourt highway), increasing leverage and keeping capex above R$10 billion per year for the next four years," says Citi.
Conversely, the bank understands that the capital structure should remain within the company's targets. And that management's efforts to strengthen execution capacity appear positive for sustaining higher investments.
As part of this perspective, the report includes sensitivity analyses of these contractual changes and other projects on the company's radar. According to Citi, at first glance, these areas appear positive and, apparently, are not fully priced in by the market.
One of the central points in these assessments is the Regis Bittencourt auction, which is expected to be one of the last auctions of 2026 involving toll roads. Citi sees Motiva potentially making a bid for the asset and outlines some scenarios involving a possible offer.
According to the bank, despite the R$ 7 billion in investments planned for the highway, concentrated over five years, the anticipated generation of EBITDA and the significant tariff adjustments should alleviate the pressure on the balance sheet for this project.
Citi notes that the government projects total revenue of R$18 billion from the project. It also emphasizes that the highway serves as a significant route for freight transport between São Paulo and the southern region, in addition to registering a significant flow of passenger and leisure vehicles.
“If we consider capital expenditure benefits similar to those estimated for the Fernão Dias highway, there would be sufficient room for Motiva to present a conservative proposal. However, value creation depends significantly on savings in capital expenditure and execution,” the analysts note.
Regarding potential addendums to its main concessions, the bank points out that the timeline remains uncertain, especially due to regulatory discussions in an election year. However, it sees a greater chance of developments in the short term for the SPVias, AutoBAn, and São Paulo Metro lines 5 and 17 concessions.
In the case of toll roads, the estimate is for a rebalancing, mainly through concession extensions. For SPVias, the bank projects investments of R$ 4 billion to R$ 5 billion, potentially offset by extensions between 7 and 9.5 years.
At AutoBAn, the estimated investment level is similar, between R$ 4 billion and R$ 5 billion, with contract extensions of 2.5 to 3.5 years, depending on the volume of capital injection.
"Regarding mobility (Metro lines 5 and 17), the current concession structure, combined with potential investments of up to R$ 7 billion, makes a rebalancing based solely on extending the term unlikely," the bank points out.
Citi considers a hybrid solution more plausible, with partial government compensation through public-private partnership mechanisms. It also emphasizes that, even assuming a maximum extension of 10 years, substantial tariff increases would still be necessary to reach the weighted average cost of regulatory capital.
"It is estimated that around 57% of the investments will be the responsibility of the company, while the remaining 43% will be compensated by the government," another excerpt from the report highlights.
Analysts state that this scenario includes a 10-year extension to the concession period, a 27.1% tariff increase, and an incremental traffic of approximately 50,000 passengers per day with the two additional stations, starting in 2030.
Motiva's shares were up 2% around 11:10 AM on the B3 stock exchange, trading at R$ 15.06 and valuing the company at R$ 29.7 billion. However, considering the accumulated value by 2026, the shares have depreciated by 1.92%.
