The ongoing discussion surrounding the reduction of the 6x1 work schedule, from 44 to 40 hours per week, is already highlighting the real impact of this measure on various sectors of the economy. A report by BTG Pactual shows that, in general and without any mitigating action, retail EBITDA is expected to fall by 9.5% with the implementation of the new rules.
According to analysts, the biggest impact will be in the pharmaceutical retail sector, which will experience a 13.6% drop in EBITDA. This will be followed by apparel, which will suffer an 8.8% decrease in margins. Food retail is expected to see an 8.6% drop in EBITDA, and e-commerce, a 7.6% decrease.
"With reduced working hours, retailers would likely need to increase staffing levels, adjust shift structures, or adopt a combination of both to preserve store coverage and service levels," says the report signed by Luiz Guanais, Yan Cesquim, and Beatriz Cendon.
The challenge from now on, according to the bank, is to understand how much the segments will be able to minimize the impact of costs arising from the need to increase the number of employees, in order to meet the 10% reduction in the weekly volume of working hours.
"The main question for retailers will be how effectively they can mitigate higher labor costs through strategic responses. Automation, scalability, and productivity gains should be the main levers to offset these pressures," the report states.
As a way to reduce the costs of this change, in the view of analysts, Vivara, for example, "could invest in digital solutions to improve inventory management and sales efficiency in stores, reducing the need to expand on-site teams."
One path suggested by BTG for Magazine Luiza, which already has a strong presence in e-commerce, would be to "further expand its digital and omnichannel capabilities, reducing its dependence on work in physical stores."
According to the bank's analysis, companies with more capital-intensive models, such as Assaí Atacadista, may find it more difficult to offset increased labor costs and may be forced to raise prices or absorb margin pressure, potentially affecting demand in the short term.
On the other hand, analysts believe that Raia Drogasil, one of the publicly traded companies in Brazil that has already started a 5x2 work schedule but has not yet absorbed the reduction in working hours, may be better positioned to absorb higher costs, focusing on higher-margin avenues.
"Ultimately, the ability to absorb higher labor costs will depend on companies' ability to extract operational efficiencies, pass on cost increases without harming demand, and maintain workforce flexibility," they state.
BTG also assessed the impact of the need to increase the number of employees so that companies can keep their operations running.
“Cost pressure is not negligible, but it can be partially offset. Retailers would likely need to increase staffing levels, adjust shift structures, or adopt a combination of both to preserve store coverage and service levels,” the report says.
Analysts believe that, across the four listed retail sectors – pharmaceuticals, food, apparel, and e-commerce – the projected hiring volume to meet the new demand resulting from the change in working hours is 30,400.
The food service sector will need to hire an additional 10,900 workers, while pharmaceutical chains will have to open 8,300 more positions. The fashion retail sector will need 5,800 employees, and e-commerce, another 5,300.
According to BTG's survey, the expectation is that, with the shift to a 5x2 work schedule, personnel expenses per store employee will reach R$ 67,200 per year, considering the entire retail sector. Consequently, the costs of adapting to this new reality are expected to reach R$ 2 billion.
The Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC), which began its legislative process in Brasília after an agreement between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta, still needs to be approved by both federal deputies and senators. It requires the support of at least 308 in the Chamber of Deputies and 49 in the Senate.
Even with the accelerated pace that Motta wants to impose on the project, the proposal continues to face resistance from business leaders and economists, who argue that the reduction in working hours should be accompanied by productivity gains through training, innovation, and infrastructure improvements.
Furthermore, well-paid workers with a university degree and income exceeding R$ 21,000 per month, equivalent to 2.5 times the INSS ceiling, would be exempt from the new rules on working hours and time control, in an attempt to reduce the "outsourcing" of employment among higher-income professionals.
