Mercado Libre , through its financial arm Mercado Pago , and Nubank are accelerating their growth and establishing themselves as the main drivers of credit card credit growth in the Brazilian market.
This is the starting point of a new report sent to clients by Itaú BBA. The investment bank highlights that, together, the two companies accounted for approximately 36% of the growth in the credit card portfolio in Brazil over the last 12 months.
This acceleration is reinforced when comparing the combined growth of the pair – also around 36% – in the fourth quarter of 2025 with the expansion of approximately 30% recorded by the two companies in the first quarter of last year.
Based on this finding and the inclusion of the fourth quarter of 2025 figures in this calculation, Itaú BBA analyzes some indicators for each operation in the segment and, based on these numbers, establishes a comparison between the performances and strategies of the two companies.
"Mercado Libre issued nearly 3 million new cards in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina in the fourth quarter (an increase from approximately 2 million in the third quarter and 1.5 million in the second quarter)," one section of the report points out.
Analysts at the bank note that this growth was driven by improvements in the group's credit models in Brazil and Mexico, as well as expansion in Argentina. In the Brazilian market, the company grew its card portfolio by approximately US$840 million (R$4.6 billion) during the period.
During that same period, Nubank added approximately US$2.1 billion (R$11.4 billion) to its portfolio. The bank also highlights that the company nearly doubled the growth of its card portfolio during this period, compared to the third quarter of 2025.
"Interestingly, both companies seem comfortable with their credit models and are taking advantage of the opportunity to accelerate growth," the analysts write.
In a comparison between the two operations, over a broader period, the bank points out that Mercado Libre's card portfolio grew by US$2.6 billion (R$12.9 billion) in the last 12 months, equivalent to about 40% of Nubank's US$6.5 billion (R$26.6 billion).
There are other differences between the portfolios. Itaú BBA points out, for example, that Nubank's net financial margin after losses – an index that measures the profitability of credit discounted for defaults – is at a good level of 19%. Mercado Libre's is negative at around 6% to 7%.
The bank also emphasizes that Nubank's card operation was boosted by a larger share of its interest-generating portfolio, around 35%, compared to Mercado Libre's rate of approximately 15%, which allowed David Vélez's company to have a higher gross income.
“Nubank also benefits from a lower cost of risk, of approximately 14% (slightly higher than the previous year) versus Mercado Libre's range of 23 to 24% (which saw a significant year-on-year improvement, with a 7 percentage point reduction),” analysts say.
Regarding Mercado Libre, the bank states that the negative margin reflects the impact of the rapid issuance of new cards. And that this pressure should remain in 2026, as the group accelerates this front in Argentina, where the operation does not benefit from the maturation of older harvests.
Conversely, Itaú BBA points out that the company has observed that portfolios with more than two years of operation in Brazil already show a positive margin. And that approximately half of the card portfolio in Brazil has reached the profitability level.
"As a result, we estimate that the overall net financial margin after losses for cards in Brazil is practically at the break-even point or slightly negative if we consider financing 100% of the portfolio," another excerpt from the report states.
Itaú BBA highlights that Mercado Libre holds a significant advantage, however, when it comes to profitability in the consumer and seller credit segment, with a margin of approximately 46% compared to Nubank's 19%.
Based on these and other data from the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank updated some of its estimates for Mercado Libre in 2026. In one of these indicators, it reduced its projection for earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) growth by 13.8%, to US$3.5 billion, with a margin of 9.1%.
Regarding net profit, the new estimate points to US$2.3 billion, a 14.3% decrease compared to the previous projection. At the same time, the bank reduced the target price for the company's shares from US$2,600 to US$2,500, but maintained its buy recommendation for the stock.
Mercado Libre shares closed trading on Friday, March 13, on Nasdaq, at US$1,670, with a slight decrease of 0.60%, giving the company a market value of US$84.6 billion. Year-to-date, the shares have depreciated by 17%.
Nubank's shares closed Friday's trading on the New York Stock Exchange down 0.57%, at US$13.89. By 2026, the shares have accumulated a 17% decline. The company is valued at US$67.4 billion.
