The Brazilian e-commerce market is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, jumping from a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of R$ 330 billion in 2024 to R$ 380 billion last year.
The current situation is still far from the results achieved during the Covid-19 pandemic, which propelled online retail to a new level among consumers. Even so, it shows signs of robust growth.
In 2021, GMV increased by 29%. It then slowed to 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023. In 2024, it returned to a high growth trajectory, closing with a 25% increase, driven by increased consumption in the country.
But it's impossible to say that companies have returned to calm waters. A report by BTG Pactual points out, however, that the biggest challenge for Brazilian companies operating in online retail is dealing with what analysts call a "foreign invasion" in e-commerce.
In the document, the bank details the strength of these players who operate significantly in the cross-border market. Last year, Shopee's GMV exceeded R$70 billion, and Shein's surpassed R$15 billion. In the case of Temu, they point to "figures in the billions of reais in its first year."
The bank also highlights the success of TikTok Shop, a tool launched in Brazil in May 2025. According to experts, the Chinese platform's direct sales channel reached a volume of US$1 million per day in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) just a few months after its launch.
“Competing with these players requires not only scale, but also leveraging the ecosystem, local logistics density, and superior monetization capabilities,” state analysts Luiz Guanais, Yan Cesquim, and Pedro Lima, who authored the report.
All of this takes into account the impact of the "Remessa Conforme" tax, known as the "blouse tax," created by the federal government precisely to guarantee a more equitable level in terms of taxes, and which came into effect in August 2024.
But in practice, the initiative to introduce a 20% import tax on shipments up to US$50 was not enough to curb the power of Asian companies and inhibit the volume of foreign purchases with lower tax burdens.
"Foreign platforms initially benefited from tariff asymmetries, allowing for highly subsidized business models and dominance in low-to-medium-value products," say the BTG experts.
“However, the 2024 regulatory change caused a sharp drop in the volume of cross-border orders, but did not eliminate its competitive advantage,” the report explains.
Excluding foreign operators, Mercado Libre is expected to reach a 47% share of GMV in 2025, followed by Amazon and Magazine Luiza, with approximately 12% each.
With Asian platforms factored in, the scenario changes somewhat. Including Shopee, Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop, Mercado Libre holds a 39% market share , leading the market, while Shopee reaches 14%.
Looking ahead, based on the challenges identified and the growth opportunities arising from increased consumption, BTG projects annual GMV growth in Brazilian e-commerce of 14% to 15% over the next 12 to 18 months. This would represent revenue of R$ 436 million in 2026.
"This scenario assumes strong performance from Mercado Libre, with a 25% increase in GMV, a resumption of seller growth by Amazon, and the maintenance of Shopee's strength in the low average value segment," says the BTG report.
Still, the avenue for growth, compared to physical retail, is quite large. "It's important to highlight that the expansion of e-commerce is still far from its maximum potential, since retail sales remain predominantly concentrated offline," the analysts explain.
In 2024, e-commerce represented 11% of total retail sales, with projections of 12% in 2025, and up to 15.6% in 2028."In the optimistic scenario, the expansion reaches approximately 14% of retail in 2026, driven by stronger monetization (ads and subscriptions), fintech expansion, and a favorable regulatory environment," he states.
The trend suggests that the battle to reduce delivery times and offer perks like free shipping to retain customers will become even more structured in the coming years.
"Free shipping remains one of the most powerful conversion drivers: around 48% of consumers abandoned their shopping cart due to unexpected fees, and conversion rates generally improve between 20% and 30% when free shipping is offered."
In the case of logistics, large companies are betting on improving fulfillment to guarantee the volume of deliveries in shorter timeframes.
“Mercado Libre covers approximately 90% of its GMV with cross-docking, flex, and fulfillment; Shopee operates 15 distribution centers; and Amazon is accelerating logistics density through incentives for FBA (the company's logistics service). Logistics depth, and not just price, is today the main strategic differentiator,” states BTG.
