The Brazilian electricity sector could experience a "short circuit" in the coming weeks if the federal government fails to find a solution to reduce the mismatch between energy generation and consumption, which generates a peak in overload due to a lack of demand. This assessment comes from Ricardo Lisboa, founding partner of Delta Energia.
“We are close to another blackout in Brazil due to oversupply. The grid doesn't only go down due to a lack of energy. When there is oversupply on the grid, it also shuts down as a form of protection,” Lisboa tells NeoFeed .
According to him, the way forward is to encourage increased consumption, especially in relation to large industries, and the implementation of equipment such as data centers. Without practical action, the problem could resurface next month.
“We could have a crisis in July. But the price of energy in the country doesn't help this increase in consumption. On the contrary. That's why so many companies are going to Paraguay,” he says.
And, if this blackout does indeed occur, according to the businessman, Brazil could be without electricity for several days, precisely because the entire system is interconnected by the National Electric System Operator (ONS). "If this happens, they need to be quick to deal with the problem."
The biggest problem is precisely related to the generation of energy from sustainable sources, such as wind and solar . Without the possibility of controlling the volume generated, one strategy, according to the businessman, is to create a kind of curtailment specifically for small hydroelectric plants (SHPs), which does not exist today.
“Some of them are not controlled by the ONS. When that happens, it is necessary to request that the distributors cut off the supply. There was a test recently, but it did not yield the expected result,” says Lisboa, who was president of the board of the Brazilian Association of Energy Traders (Abraceel).
To partially mitigate this impact and cost, stemming from the forced need for power outages, Delta Energia has been diversifying its investment portfolio. With the exception of hydroelectric power, the company has decided to invest in all energy sources, in addition to operating as a trading company.
Founded in 2001 by Lisboa and Rubens Takano, the company operates in the biofuels segment, especially ethanol and biodiesel, energy trading for residences and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), thermal and solar power generation, energy management, and the free energy and gas market.
“That’s the good part about diversification. When sales aren’t going very well, the other businesses are. And we’ve never had two or three sectors with problems at the same time. One compensates for the other,” he says.
According to the founder of Delta Energia, a company operating in the fossil fuel and sustainable energy sectors, it is very difficult for Brazil to have a 100% renewable energy matrix. Currently, the country generates 88% of its energy from clean sources.
“There is a desire in the world to be totally sustainable in the energy sector, but that is impossible. And when there is a peak in consumption, at the end of the day, when the sun sets, an alternative is needed,” he says. Delta currently has 110 MW of solar energy capacity.
Lisbon's perspective is that, within two years, 40% of Delta's total revenue will come from the thermal power plant segment, 30% from biodiesel, 10% from sales, and the remaining 20% from energy retail.
The company does not disclose its exact revenue, but the founding partner states that Delta's revenue is between R$2 billion and R$5 billion, placing it in a medium-sized category among companies in the sector.
Interest in the thermoelectric plant
The expectation of growth in the thermoelectric sector explains the company's interest in participating in the auction for reserve electricity capacity, held in March by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, which generated contracts worth approximately R$ 515 billion.
Delta won two bids for natural gas-fired thermoelectric generation projects, totaling 235 MW of power available to the Brazilian electrical system. The company will expand the William Arjona thermoelectric plant, which will have a capacity of 67 MW, and will build a 168 MW unit. The units are located in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul.
According to the founder, these projects should generate, upon completion, an extra revenue of at least R$ 1 billion, equivalent to a 20% share of the company's revenue. "It's something significant. A very important project for Delta."
The company's idea is to bring forward the delivery of the first phase to August 2027, which was previously scheduled for the same month in 2028. "We are in talks with suppliers and the government to check the feasibility of expanding the unit." The second phase will be in 2029. Lisboa does not reveal the investment amount, but says the resources will be from the company's own funds.
The auction results were initially suspended by the Federal Court of Ceará, which argued that contracting the energy would generate an annual cost of R$ 48 billion for consumers' electricity bills. However, two days later, the decision was overturned by the Federal District Court.
"I no longer have any concerns regarding legal security risks. For me, any problem would be a surprise. Aneel has already approved it," he states.
On Monday, June 22nd, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) approved the draft of the second energy transmission auction this year, scheduled for October 30th. The auction is expected to generate investments of R$ 87.9 billion.
