In Venezuela's "black box," a debt of US$240 billion and the largest restructuring in history.

In the process of rebuilding after the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro , following a US intervention in January of this year, Venezuela is about to open the Pandora's box of its debt . And what will be revealed promises to exceed the worst market expectations.

The country is expected to disclose a total debt of US$240 billion in the coming weeks, above market estimates that pointed to a range between US$150 billion and US$200 billion, according to the Financial Times , which cites sources familiar with the matter.

If confirmed, this amount would constitute the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history. Until now, this undesirable "title" belongs to Greece, which restructured approximately US$200 billion in 2012 during the eurozone crisis.

Even before rising to the top of this ranking, Venezuela's restructuring was already considered more complex than any previous process, due to the variety of debts the country incurred and the long period it went without paying its creditors.

Within this package, government and PDVSA (Venezuelan state oil company) bonds account for the largest share, at approximately US$60 billion, in addition to roughly US$40 billion in post-default interest. This amount grows at an annual rate of US$5 billion.

According to estimates, Venezuela also owes between US$30 billion and US$50 billion to oil companies and creditors for unpaid invoices, in addition to more than US$20 billion in court-ordered compensation awarded to companies after Hugo Chávez's regime expropriated their properties.

These projections also include between US$10 billion and US$20 billion in debt to China, stemming from debts whose export payments were initially suspended. In addition, there are approximately US$6 billion owed to Russia and US$4 billion to development banks.

In this scenario, Delcy Rodríguez, the interim president since Maduro's ouster, plans to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of 2026, which would pave the way for Venezuela's return to international markets after nearly a decade of isolation.

As part of this process, the local government hired Centerview Partners as a financial advisor. The American investment bank helped develop a plan to restore the sustainability of the country's debt, which will be published in early July, according to the Financial Times .

Before that, the Venezuelan government will publish a report with the macroeconomic outlook, which will estimate the size of the local economy at approximately US$100 billion, well below the US$370 billion of 2012, the last year of Chávez's government, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to over 200%.

Leading this restructuring process for Centerview is Matthieu Pigasse, a French banker who assisted Greece, Argentina, and other countries in major debt restructuring operations while working at the American investment bank Lazard.

Pigasse, who joined Centerview in 2020, has a history of close ties to Caracas. The executive previously worked as a sales consultant for Citgo, a former PDVSA subsidiary in the United States, and has maintained a close relationship with Rodríguez for over a decade.

Recently, Lazard sent a letter to the Venezuelan government with a proposal to replace Centerview in this process and an offer of services worth approximately US$25 million, which was rejected.

Meanwhile, Venezuela has been taking some unusual steps in a sovereign restructuring of this magnitude. The debt sustainability analysis, for example, was not prepared by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ).

As a reflection of these movements, there is a high probability that creditors will interpret the poor assessment of the country's finances as a sign that Venezuela will seek a significant reduction in the value of its debts.

At the same time, some in the Venezuelan opposition fear that an accelerated restructuring outside of IMF circles could put the country in a weaker negotiating position with those creditors.

"There needs to be a discussion orchestrated by the IMF between creditors and an appropriate and audited debt perimeter," said an investor who recently sold off Venezuelan bonds.

Venezuela resumed trade relations with the IMF in April, after a seven-year hiatus. And, according to sources, there were technical discussions between the two parties regarding the country's economic data, and the debt restructuring plan will follow a model similar to that of the fund.

While the local government seeks alternatives, creditors are closely watching how quickly the country can resume oil production and how well the restoration of crude oil sales, mediated by the United States since Maduro's departure, performs.

The Central Bank of Venezuela, which has resumed regularly publishing some economic data, released balance of payments information this week showing oil export sales totaling US$5.5 billion in the first three months of this year.

This amount represents an increase compared to the US$4.4 billion recorded in the final months of the Maduro government, but it is far below the peak before the default and US sanctions.