With Flávio Bolsonaro 's pre-candidacy shaken by revelations about the depth and intimacy of the senator's relationship with banker Daniel Vorcaro , Faria Lima (the financial district of São Paulo) has been analyzing the possibility of a center-right option emerging to challenge President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential elections.
Those who want to take advantage of this situation include Romeu Zema , who has been meeting with members of the São Paulo financial market and finding receptiveness to his agenda.
But his electoral viability and how he will exploit the situation faced by the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro to win voters are points of uncertainty. According to managers and businesspeople interviewed by NeoFeed , there are still doubts as to whether the financial market can "price in" the possibility of the former governor of Minas Gerais being elected.
One day after meeting with business leaders at the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (Amcham Brasil), Zema participated in an event hosted by Genial Investimentos with clients and partners on the morning of Tuesday, May 26, in São Paulo.
In a completely packed auditorium, with some of the audience standing at the back of the investment platform's headquarters, the pre-candidate for the Novo party began by talking about the Master Case, repeating some of the statements he made at Amcham. One of them, which stood out, was that the relationship between Flávio and Vorcaro, whom he referred to as a "bandit banker," risks handing the election to Lula.
"This view is becoming increasingly clear due to the growing rejection of the PL candidate," he said. "I don't agree with anyone who is associated with criminals, I'm outraged."
Zema used the case to counter his position, stating that his government in Minas Gerais was "very bad at generating news of scandals and schemes," also highlighting his distance from Vorcaro.
"It seems to me that skunks smell like skunks. That's what I'm saying. He [Vorcaro] must have realized that he wouldn't have any promising conversations with me, due to my attitude. In other places, it seems he was received with a red carpet," he stated.
According to him, this stance qualifies him to carry out a "moral and ethical shock" in Brasília , stating that he never received an indecent proposal while he was governor. "The stance itself is a signal. When someone makes their line of action clear, the foxes don't get near the henhouse," he said.
Along with this "moral shock," Zema said he intends to deliver two other "shocks" if elected. One of them is a "security shock," toughening the stance against crime, citing the case of El Salvador as an example of successful policies, even though they are the target of criticism for alleged human rights abuses.
On the economic front, he spoke about what Faria Lima [a financial district in São Paulo] is looking for in candidates: a tougher stance on fiscal policy and a pro-privatization agenda. Zema said he intends to carry out a new pension reform, seeking to include a minimum retirement age trigger, adjustments only for inflation, and the beginning of a discussion about adopting a capitalization system.
He advocated for spending cuts — "it's like five-meter-high weeds that you can only cut with your bare hands" — and a review of social programs, stating that there are "many grown men" receiving Bolsa Família (a Brazilian social welfare program) and preferring to do odd jobs rather than take on full-time employment. "We created a program that perpetuates the precarious situation," he said.
Zema's proposals were well received by the audience, who see him as an alternative to Flávio Bolsonaro, considering his experience leading the government of Minas Gerais and the fact that he is a businessman. "It was very good, Zema is very well prepared," said one participant as he left the event, who asked not to be identified.
A manager who participated in a meeting with Zema during Brazil Week in New York said that the former governor seemed "much more at ease" at today's event, assessing that he is managing to take better advantage of the situation than the former governor of Goiás , Ronaldo Caiado , pre-candidate for the PSD party.
The possibility of new revelations "should target the wings" of Flávio Bolsonaro, paving the way for Zema, who is still polling poorly — the Datafolha poll released on April 22 showed the former governor with 4% of voting intentions, one point behind Caiado and 28 points behind the PL candidate. "He would need something between 10% and 12% to take off," said the manager.
He also believes that, for Zema to have a chance of winning, he needs to win over Flávio Bolsonaro's voters. And the big question is whether, if he continues the attacks, he will end up alienating the public most closely aligned with Bolsonaro's supporters. "He needs to find a balance in that," the manager stated.
During the panel discussion, Zema was questioned about this point. He stated that disagreements are normal in the first round, even if the current tone is negative. The main thing, he affirmed, is that everyone is united in the second round to defeat Lula.
Regarding his viability in the election, he stated that everything will be decided at the last minute. "The voter will only decide their vote the day before. Whoever answers the poll today wants to get rid of the pollster, and what comes to mind is Lula and Bolsonaro," he said.
His trump card, he stated, is that this year's election will be marked by indignation. "The 2018 election was the anti-politics election, and I was elected on that wave. This year we will have the election of indignation, because Brazilians are indignant with Banco Master and everything involved," he said.
